Persian powerplay

Iran8217;s repeated protests that it is playing fair in the conduct of both its oil diplomacy and its nuclear programme are strikingly disingenuous. Less than a week ago the International Atomic Energy Agency reported that Tehran continues to be in non-compliance on its international commitments, and is hastening its uranium enrichment activities. Put simply, by some estimates it could be just a year away from making a nuclear bomb. Two hypocrisies underpin the Iranian regime8217;s statements at this juncture. One, it argues that its nuclear activities are driven by the desire for energy alternatives to hydrocarbons. Two, it goes on to threaten that were action to be taken in the form of economic sanctions or military options, the result would be escalation of oil prices. In fact, this week Iran8217;s deputy oil minister, Hadi Nejad Hosseinian, said in New Delhi that it really would not like to see a hike in the price of oil but geopolitical factors could push it up to 100 a barrel by year-end. The threat woven into that observation is so crude that Iran8217;s arguments must be pared down to their hypocrisies.

Why would a country with the third highest oil reserves and considerable natural gas reserves expend so much financial resources and international goodwill in the pursuit of nuclear energy? This is a regime, remember, that buys popularity domestically by subsidising gasoline to the ludicrous extent that conserving oil makes little economic sense to its citizens. But even if one accepts that all Tehran wants is nuclear energy there is no reason why it cannot buy the requisite enriched uranium without violating its international commitments. It doesn8217;t take nuclear science to confirm Iran8217;s pursuit of nuclear weapons.

It is outrageous, then, that Iran8217;s emissaries continue to seek India8217;s support with what amounts almost to blackmail and an attempt to find political faultlines. A smugness lies at the heart of Iran8217;s warnings of higher oil prices. Prices are rising in large part due to the Iran crisis. So, even in the midst of a crisis, it is Iran that reaps higher revenues from oil. To understand the value for Tehran, consider this. Last year, with oil around 60, it met its target for the annual state budget in just six months. New Delhi8217;s chosen to play the Iran stakes at the IAEA on the basis of enlightened national interest 8212; not short-term petty gains. This must be reiterated to the stream of Iranian high officials passaging through India.