Peace in our time?

Not surprisingly, GOP stalwarts are doing the first and demanding that the rest of us do the second. Meanwhile, some Democrats seem convinced of the need for the third approach and are standing on their heads to argue that what seems like good news is just sneakily repackaged bad news. Sectarian violence is down in Iraq? Yeah, sure, but only because the ethnic-cleansing process has been more or less completed, on our watch!As usual, the reality is more complicated. For the puzzled, here8217;s a guide.

Start with Tuesday8217;s Annapolis talks between Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas. By day8217;s end, the two men had agreed to restart the peace process, beginning December 12.

To be sure, it was a day for photo-ops rather than substance. But sometimes photo-ops matter. After seven years of suicide bombings, targetted assassinations, bulldozers and walls, the picture of Olmert and Abbas shaking hands, flanked by the president of the United States, still packs a symbolic punch. Despite everything, key regional players still come to the table when Washington signals a willingness to get serious. Peace talks aren8217;t the same thing as peace, but they8217;re not chopped liver either.

Of course, the Bush administration might have gotten serious a little earlier, and the obstacles remain daunting. Neither Olmert nor Abbas has much support at home, and bitterness runs deep on both sides. Hamas quickly denounced the Annapolis agreement, and conflict between Hamas and Fatah could scuttle any progress. Administration klutziness particularly 8216;axis of evil8217;-style rhetoric could also still alienate critical players. So stay tuned.

Next, Pakistan. Last week, Bush insisted that Musharraf 8220;hasn8217;t crossed the line8221; and 8220;truly is somebody who believes in democracy.8221; Not an easy position to maintain when you8217;re talking about a guy who seized power in a military coup and now clings to power via emergency powers and the imprisonment of thousands of dissidents. Bush must have been relieved when Musharraf finally bowed to pressure and stepped down as army chief of staff.

But Musharraf has given no indication that he8217;s willing to hold genuinely free elections or end the crackdown on dissidents, and no one in the fragmented opposition yet offers an attractive alternative. Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif should not be seen as democratic saviours 8212; or reliable US allies.

Musharraf has sometimes kept his fingers crossed behind his back while promising to combat Islamic extremism and end nuclear proliferation, but Bhutto and Sharif are expert finger-crossers too. Don8217;t plan to take Pakistan off the list of scary situations any time soon.

Finally, Iraq. Civilian deaths really do seem to be down, and that8217;s unequivocally good. How much of the decline in violence is because of the US military 8216;surge8217; and how much is because of sectarian segregation is an open question; almost certainly, it8217;s a bit of both. But does this mean the surge has 8216;worked,8217; or that those who favour relatively rapid US withdrawal need to reconsider their views? Not really.

The point of our military successes was to increase security enough to allow the Iraqi political process to move forward 8212; but that hasn8217;t happened and almost certainly won8217;t. Ironically, some of the very factors that have enhanced local-level stability 8212; such as sectarian segregation and the empowerment of local tribal and religious leaders 8212; may undermine the likelihood of national-level political progress, at least as originally envisioned by the Bush administration.

We lack the resources to maintain current troop levels, and our ongoing presence in Iraq continues to feed regional extremism and distract us from other pressing security issues. We still need to make firm plans to redeploy most of our troops. If possible, we should use the nature and timing of that redeployment as a last lever to encourage Iraq8217;s fractious parties to reach some reasonable agreement on how to govern after we8217;re gone. But if that8217;s not possible, we need to leave anyway.

The bottom line? Good news is good news, but the Republicans shouldn8217;t gloat, and Democrats shouldn8217;t be churlish. There8217;s going to be more than enough bad news to go around.

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