On the very edge

The long-awaited report of the UN Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission UNMOVIC along with International Atomic Energy Agency...

The long-awaited report of the UN Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission UNMOVIC along with International Atomic Energy Agency IAEA clearly indicates that there is no 8216;smoking gun8217; to eliminate which the US should launch a war against Iraq. In fact, Dr Al-Baradei, head of the IAEA, has reported to the UN Security Council that the inspections found 8216;no evidence that Iraq has revived its nuclear weapon programme8217; since it was eliminated in the nineties. The normally careful head of UNMOVIC, Hans Blix, conceded that after inspecting 350 sites in two months, with Iraq co-operating in the process, the inspectors had not found any evidence of 8216;banned activity or production facilities8217;. But the UN inspectors in their report to the UN Security Council have also confirmed that Iraq is co-operating in the 8216;process8217; but not in 8216;substance8217;.

Continuing the inspections would no doubt lead to greater substance and Iraq must cooperate fully in this process 8212; both in spirit and in substance. At the same time, by any logic, the aim of the UN resolutions must remain the central factor for any move to use force. This seeks Iraq8217;s disarmament in relation to weapons of mass destruction. Doubts so far seem to revolve around chemical and biological weapons and stocks. Although there is evidence with regard to their existence in Iraq 8212; which used chemical weapons against Iran and its own citizens in 1988 8212; these are far more difficult to verify. The risks in hasty judgement are well known, as the 1998 US missile attack on a pharmaceutical installation, believed to be chemical weapons plant in Sudan, showed. The US has been saying it has unambiguous evidence about Iraq8217;s possession and programmes of weapons of mass destruction. Hopefully this will be time they will provide that information to the inspectors before launching a war.

Washington would, no doubt, also be sensitive to changing public opinion within the US and among its key allies, who would prefer extending the mandate to continue inspections as the route to Iraq8217;s disarmament. France, Germany, Russia, China 8212; possibly for their own reasons 8212; and indeed most of the influential countries of the world now insist that whatever needs to done to implement the UN resolutions, must remain within the UN ambit. The problem has been complicated by Washington often indicating that the goal was a 8216;regime change8217; in Iraq. Most of Iraq8217;s neighbours may also want this; but others also see it as struggle to control oil. A war with multiple aims not clearly mandated by the UN would set a wrong precedent. Nothing has emerged so far to justify an early, leave alone immediate, military attack on Iraq. The US is fully ready to use overwhelming military force with phenomenal technological advantage. But its use would carry greater impact and international support if a credible case to justify war could be made.