Nuclear bombast

Pakistanis should be worried by the new posture Nawaz Sharif has been adopting. There are unmistakable signs of political desperation in it which could lead the country deeper into trouble. As the complete diplomatic isolation of Islamabad becomes apparent, Pakistan8217;s prime minister is being increasingly attacked at home for failing to secure his country8217;s interests. Among the more outspoken critics are the Pakistan People8217;s Party and the Jamaat-e-Islami, a former president and former ISI chief and influential sections of the media. It is at this juncture that Sharif has chosen, for the first time since India began air and ground operations in Kargil, to make a trip to a forward army post, seven kilometres from the Line of Control. If the morale-boosting visit to Pakistani troops in the company of the army chief, Pervez Musharraf, does not convey the message that Sharif has thrown in his lot with the generals, his rhetoric leaves no room for doubt. In seeking a political victory by outdoing the generals inbelligerence he is giving up all effort to pull Pakistan back from the inevitable disaster which will occur if the army is allowed to pursue its brinkmanship in Kargil.

There is nothing particularly subtle in Sharif8217;s warning about 8220;irreparable8221; losses to both sides if the conflict in Kargil escalates into a war. It is part of the irresponsible nuclear blackmail Pakistan8217;s political-military establishment regularly resorts to in times of difficulty. Pakistan8217;s foreign secretary who was more in tune with the generals than his prime minister in early June was an early sabre-rattler; politicians from Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir followed suit. Pakistani nuclear threats are used by politicians to shore up sinking popularity at home, by the military to try to compensate for their inferiority vis a vis India in conventional weapons, and in the diplomatic arena to try and frighten the international community into intervening in Kashmir. All three elements play a part in Sharif8217;s statements in Gultari. Far fromhaving its intended effects on any front, nuclear blackmail will worsen Pakistan8217;s crisis. The sheer irresponsibility of the prime minister8217;s rhetoric could compel a severe political reaction at home because, leaving aside the crazies, no one in Pakistan is foolish enough to believe the country can gain anything by reckless talk on the top of the recklessness on the LoC. Nuclear threats may be routine for Pakistani politicians but in the midst of a military misadventure, diplomatic isolation, economic crisis and political instability, they are the final blow to Islamabad8217;s credibility. What that will do immediately is increase international pressure on Islamabad to withdraw its forces from Kargil. It will probably lead to Pakistan being starved of multilateral finance and military supplies more rapidly. The long-term effect will be to put Pakistan into the category of states no on wants to do business with because of its unreliability, irresponsibility and unpredictability and its total disregard ofinternational norms of behaviour. The Pakistani people must hope that the US mission led by General Anthony Zinni has succeeded in bringing about a more sober perspective in Islamabad.