No 10-sion: PwC report projects, doesn146;t predict

The report 8212; Modelling Olympic Performance 8212; was based on five indices: population, average income levels GDP per capita, whether the country was part of the Soviet Bloc, whether the country is the host nation and tally in previous Games 1988 onwards.

It projected the US on top at Athens, followed by Russia, China, Germany and Australia; India were at 27th place, with 10 medals against their name.

First obvious question: How did they arrive at 10 medals? Well, while population and income levels pushed the figure up, India8217;s previous tallies pulled it down. So it wasn8217;t in the 60s, and it wasn8217;t 0 or 1 either.

Which raises the next question: If the analysis has already factored in the negative India8217;s previous tallies, why is this still a projection and not a more scientific prediction? Why are PwC playing down the accuracy?

Enter the missing factor: the role of a sporting culture. Cue Hawksworth: 8216;8216;India is something of an anomaly because, given the population and economy, you would expect many more medals than it is likely to get. We explain this by the fact that India tends to be focussed on cricket, a non-Olympic sport. So we aren8217;t saying India will win 10 medals at Athens.8217;8217;

Indeed, the report said that cricket 8216;8216;may attract potential stars from Olympic events8217;8217;.

But if the Indian problem is cricket at the cost of other sports, shouldn8217;t the US be seen through the same filter? The American sporting focus is squarely on the Big 4: baseball, football, basketball and ice hockey. Wrestling has no place in the spectrum, yet the US has 17 wrestlers in Athens.

How8217;s that? 8216;8216;I would say America has a strong sporting tradition in most of the key Olympic areas. As far as I know that is not the case in India,8217;8217; Hawksworth says. What he means is that there8217;s a more organised grassroots level in Olympic or non-commercial sports, which India lacks. But there is some good news.

Deepak Kapoor, director of PwC8217;s Indian chapter, says that the state8217;s attitude has changed 8216;8216;and we see more money going towards sports in India now8217;8217;.

While the study is based on extensive research 8212; World Bank data for 2003-04 was factored in, Kapoor says 8212; it was meant for internal purposes, not intended to benefit the public at large.

8216;8216;A bit of fun if you like8217;8217;, says Hawksworth, 8216;8216;but backed up by some serious statistical analysis.8217;8217;

Looks like life will remain normal after Athens as well, unless Mr Dalmiya can take cricket to Beijing 2008.