New York thaw

In deciding to deepen the peace process with Pakistan, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has bet on the proposition that strengthening the democratic forces next door is in India8217;s own interest. The PM8217;s warm and productive meeting with Pakistan8217;s new civilian president, Asif Ali Zardari, on the margins of the United Nations General Assembly in New York on Wednesday, comes after a series of dark developments. These included repeated violation of the ceasefire on the border by the Pakistan army, renewed rhetoric on Jammu and Kashmir from the foreign office in Islamabad, and above all the July 7 bombing of the Indian embassy in Kabul that has been traced directly to Pakistan8217;s Inter-Services Intelligence. It was tempting, then, for New Delhi to conclude that Pakistan8217;s civilian leadership is incapable of sustaining the peace process.

That he chose to overrule the prevailing pessimism in New Delhi and explore a forward-looking agenda with Zardari underlines the huge political investment the PM has made in transforming the relationship with Pakistan, as also the self-confidence that he may yet succeed over the remaining few months of his tenure. On the face of it, the joint statement issued after the meeting between the two leaders addresses most of India8217;s concerns. The joint anti-terror mechanism is expected to meet shortly to discuss the Kabul attack. Senior military officers have been asked to stay in regular contact to stabilise the ceasefire. In return for Pakistan8217;s promise to create an environment conducive to the peace process, India has reaffirmed its determination to find a mutually satisfactory settlement on J038;K. In the interim, the two sides unveiled a new set of valuable confidence-building measures. These include the launch of trade across the line of control in J038;K as well as the international border dividing the two Punjabs and between Rajasthan and Sindh.

Question marks, however, will remain on Zardari8217;s political longevity amidst a deepening domestic crisis and his ability to deliver on cross-border terrorism and normalise relations with India in the face of entrenched opposition from the army and the ISI. Having presided over the best four years in India-Pakistan relations, the PM has given Pakistan8217;s democratic leaders the benefit of the doubt. By taking a calculated risk, as on the Indo-US nuclear deal, the PM has a chance, slim though it might be, to alter the internal dynamics in Pakistan and rewrite the course of bilateral relations. A do-nothing policy amidst Pakistan8217;s internal convulsions would have been too timid. The nation hopes the PM8217;s bold gamble will pay off, but will keep its fingers firmly crossed.