NATO8217;s peace terms

The Serbian parliament's approval for a European Union-Russian peace plan for Kosovo improves the chances of bringing a devastating 75-da...

The Serbian parliament8217;s approval for a European Union-Russian peace plan for Kosovo improves the chances of bringing a devastating 75-day war to an end but does not make a halt to hostilities a certainty. The plan deserves a cautious welcome because it lays the ground for the return of Kosovar refugees even though many of the details of the plan are unclear.

With President Bill Clinton continuing to express suspicions about Slobodan Milosevic8217;s intentions, there is as yet no certainty of when and how NATO will call a halt to its bombardment of Yugoslavia. Indeed a gradual slowdown of NATO airstrikes seems more probable than a complete overnight halt. This could be problematic with an unpredictable response from Serbia leading to the unravelling of the plan even before it has been put in place. This points to a central weakness in the plan 8212; the sequence of winding down the war 8212; which will have to be addressed for it to get off the ground.

What has been revealed of the proposals so far suggests allNATO8217;s demands have been met. Serbian troops and police forces will leave Kosovo and an international force, with NATO at the core and a parallel Russian force, will secure the province for the refugees. The plan also accords nominally with principles which the Russian negotiator, Victor Chernomyrdin, has set out, namely, it must be under UN auspices and Kosovo must be recognised as a part of Yugoslavia.

The KLA remains an unknown factor. As for Belgrade, after the destruction the country has suffered, it has little choice in the matter but to withdraw from Kosovo and trust the Russians and international community to carry out their commitments as regards the status of Kosovo.

What then of Milosevic whose removal Washington has made clear from the start is essential to the restoration of peace and stability in the region? That too has been taken care of though not overtly by the peace plan. The terms make it virtually impossible for him to continue as head of government.

In the normal course, he islikely to be replaced by other leaders who are not implicated in the disaster brought upon Yugoslavia. But the Americans are not leaving anything to chance. They have done everything possible, short of writing his ouster into the peace plan, to get rid of him. Hours before the international war crimes tribunal at the Hague was due to arrive at a verdict on the Yugoslavian president, the Americans delivered loads of documents to help the prosecution case.

It was then left to the Russians and Finns to negotiate with a declared war criminal8217;, a moral fudge of little consequence to Washington. NATO has only now released data on the number of Yugoslavian casualties in the war, 5,000 troops killed and upwards of 10,000 injured, counting on that new information for Serbians to speed up Milosevic8217;s exit.

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Finally, the peace plan says nothing about the reconstruction of Yugoslavia, leaving the people to conclude, as they are likely to, that any hope of economic aid from the west will materialise only after ademocratic leadership acceptable to Washington emerges from the wreckage of Yugoslavia.