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The official weather forecasting agency, the India Meteorological Department IMD, has estimated that average rainfall over the country in the 4-month monsoon season will be 98 per cent of the normal index of 88 cm. The forecast is subject to a model error of /-5.
Using a probabilistic model for forecast, it has also said that there is 75 probability for the monsoon to be 8220;near normal or above normal.8221;
Releasing the IMD8217;s forecast here today, Union Minister for Science and Technology Kapil Sibal said: 8216;8216;El Nino is an important factor influencing the Indian monsoon. Deficient rainfall in monsoon 2004 was due to suppressed rainfall activity in July, which was due to unexpected emergence of El Nino. IMD this time will watch the developments in the Pacific Ocean before making the final forecast for the remaining three months by the end of June.8221;
The Indian Express, on April 19, quoting forecasts of different global models said that there would be good rains in June and the fate of the monsoon in the remaining three months depended upon the development of the El Nino phenomena.
The IMD8217;s current forecast for June is based on the eight-parameter statistical model. 8216;8216;Out of the 10 predictors in the model, only two, namely Eurasian snow cover in December and wind pattern in January and February were unfound unfavourable,8221; said acting director-general of IMD B Lal.
Lal said that in the end of June the IMD will also come out with a forecast of rainfall in July and forecasts of rainfall in four broad homogenous regions of the country.
The IMD said it had consulted US-based National Center for Environmental Prediction NCEP, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology IITM, Pune, Indian Institute of Science, IISc Bangalore, and the Space Application Centre, SAC Ahmedabad. IITM has predicted 100 normal monsoon, while IISc has predicted 96 normal monsoon and SAC has predicted 95 normal monsoon.
