Minor8217; problem may fell govt

COLOMBO, April 13: One thing is clear from last week8217;s provincial council elections: Sri Lanka8217;s minority Tamils and Muslims who had voted en masse for President Chandrika Kumaratunga and her People8217;s Alliance PA coalition in the 1994 general elections have now deserted her.

Kumaratunga, who made several promises to the minorities, especially the Tamils, but has so far been unable to fulfil them, cannot take their support, which swung the balance her way last time, for granted anymore. In Colombo district of the Western province, which has a huge Muslim and Tamil population, a majority of the estimated 90,000 Tamil votes in the provincial elections went to the opposition United National Party UNP. Muslim voters, estimated at 1,25,000 and concentrated mainly in Colombo municipality, also deserted the PA, leaving its coalition partner, the Sri Lanka Muslim Congress SLMC, mulling its future. The vote share in the district for the PA fell to 38.9 per cent from 44.6 per cent in the 1997 local governmentelections. 8220;The only prudent and logical thing is to go it alone in the future elections,8221; said SLMC general secretary Rauff Hakeem. While Hakeem ruled out his party ditching ditch Kumaratunga for 8220;expedient arrangements8221; as long as she did not jettison her pro-minority programmes, he said it was 8220;distressed and disillusioned8221; that she was losing ground in her natural constituencies. 8220;By contesting alone, the SLMC could have gained a couple of more seats and helped strengthen the PA,8221; Hakeem pointed out. One of the reasons being attributed to the fall from grace is that Kumaratunga has failed to deliver her promised political solution to end the ethnic conflict. Her proposals to devolve power to the Tamil north-east and her willingness to carve out a separate province for Sri Lanka8217;s Muslims in the east are gathering dust on the shelves of the Constitutional Affairs Ministry. Kumaratunga has taken refuge in the argument that unless the UNP supports her on the devolution proposals, which it has refusedto do, she cannot get the two-thirds vote required in Parliament as per the Constitution to pass the necessary amendments.

8220;The minority man on the street does not understand the constitutional trappings that have frustrated the President from fulfilling the promise. He only wants delivery, by hook or by crook,8221; said Hakeem. Instead of a political solution, for most of Kumaratunga8217;s term so far, there has been a full-scale war against the LTTE which has seen thousands of Tamils being turned into refugees in their own country. 8220;No government can hope to be permanently popular with the Tamils as long as there is a war in the north.

A war means the government has to take measures that lead to the harassment of the Tamil community as such because most soldiers treat all Tamils as LTTE,8221; said Tamil member of Parliament Dharmalingam Sidharthan. He said the only option left to Kumaratunga to regain her popularity among Tamils is a political solution. Some observers believe Kumaratunga may even attemptthis in an attempt to woo back the minorities before the next general elections, due in 2000. 8220;She may either call a cease-fire and begin a dialogue with the LTTE. Or there may be a move to bring the devolution proposals to Parliament as a legislation so that the Government is at least seen to be taking some steps to resolve the conflict,8221; said Suresh Premachandran, Secretary General of the Eelam People8217;s Revolutionary Liberation Front EPRLF.

Premachandran said if Kumaratunga wanted to prove her sincerity, she could bypass Parliament, as he has often said she would, and hold a referendum on the devolution proposals. 8220;There is still time left,8221; he said. Others like Hakeem, however, believe that in view of the provincial council election results, the Government might hesitate to take any controversial steps in the run-up to the next general elections. But unless Kumaratunga takes some tough decisions, the next general elections could well see her losing further ground.