Maya146;s Monday

Only one thing can be said with any degree of certainty in Uttar Pradesh today: That no single individual commands the confidence of the sta...

Only one thing can be said with any degree of certainty in Uttar Pradesh today: That no single individual commands the confidence of the state legislature. Whether this renders the state a fit case for imposition of president8217;s rule, pending fresh elections or pending formation of another rag-tag coalition with the requisite numbers, is the imponderable before Governor Vishnu Kant Shastri. To be sure, Mayawati has sought dissolution of the 404-member assembly. As chief minister, she has the constitutional power to do so; but, with BJP leaders beating her to Raj Bhavan by minutes to withdraw support, her recommendations need not be binding. As Shastri mulls his options, he8217;d do well to remember Caesar8217;s wife. Not only must he do the right thing, he must be seen to be doing the right thing.

Uttar Pradesh is clearly headed for another spell of political instability. Developments within hours of Mayawati8217;s abrupt announcement point that way. The BJP, the third largest block in the Lower House, has said it would explore all options, including an alternative government. The sentiment has been echoed by the Congress and the Rashtriya Lok Dal. The Samajwadi Party, the single largest party in the assembly, has in any case been busy trying to augment its flock to breach the half-way mark. Some would say political realignment is on the cards; the more pragmatic, however, would apprehend horse-trading. Uttar Pradesh8217;s recent record in unholy alliances must serve as a cautionary reminder for the governor.

He need look no further than Mayawati8217;s third stint in Lucknow. The electorate had delivered a fractured mandate in February 2002; any coalition cobbled together would have been brimming with tensions. Such tensions are perhaps unavoidable; they reflect the social dynamics in the state as well as the political fashioning of starkly demarcated votebanks. Mayawati8217;s 15-month reign, in contrast, has so far been rocked with tensions borne of a vengeful, whimsical agenda, of a disturbing unease with accountability. The Taj corridor case may have precipitated the snapping of ties with the BJP, but in hindsight the short life of her ministry appears inevitable. It is UP8217;s tragedy that it is difficult to hope that another hastily forged coalition would be any more successful 8212; in terms of its own longevity and, more important, in placing quality governance above the singleminded pursuit of office.