Mao146;s grandchildren

But the imagery also has dynastic overtones, suggesting to observers that8212;despite limited reforms8212;the transfer of power in China has not progressed far from the premodern days of patriarchs who enjoyed lifelong tenure and chose their own successors.

The influence of traditional political culture and the realities of how power works in China, analysts point out, make it unlikely that President Jiang Zemin, or any Chinese leader, would cede power of his own accord.

8216;8216;As with imperial power, lifelong tenure has existed all along in China, especially for top leaders,8217;8217; said Yu Haocheng, a visiting scholar at the University of California, Los Angeles. 8216;8216;Despite the republican revolution of 1911 and the Communist revolution of 1949, up to the present day, this problem has still not been resolved.8217;8217;

Transitions from one generation of leaders to the next have been periods of greatest instability for Communist states, none of which has found a reliable method for transferring power. Of the eight successors chosen during the first two generations of Chinese Communist leadership, six failed to hang on to power.

In China, generations served as natural divisions for clans in society and dynasties in government. The Chinese word for dynasty, 8216;8216;chaodai,8217;8217; includes the character for generation. Confucian thought that reinforced the patriarchal system by requiring obedience to emperors, fathers and husbands.

Following in this tradition, the first two Communist leaders, Mao and Deng, essentially ruled until they died. They relinquished official posts but not clout. For much of their rule, they were neither heads of state nor party; their power was too vast to be trammelled by any official rank or title. They designated and groomed heirs, only to replace them amid recurring doubts that successors would preserve their legacies.

8216;8216;I, in fact, am the core of the second generation,8217;8217; Deng reminded colleagues in 1989. 8216;8216;Because we have this core, the change of two leaders has not affected our party8217;s leadership,8217;8217; he added, referring to his sacking of two party secretaries, both designated successors. Deng not only picked Jiang as his heir but also selected current Vice President Hu Jintao as Jiang8217;s successor. The move, in effect depriving Jiang of a coveted prerogative, could create friction between the outgoing and incoming leaders and complicate the transition. Jiang 8216;8216;feels a need to protect and consolidate his legacy as only he can do,8217;8217; said Thomas Bartlett, a historian at La Trobe University in Melbourne, Australia.

According to the Communist Party Charter, the National Congress elects the Central Committee, which in turn chooses the party chief. In fact, both organisations are reduced to rubber-stamping the chosen heir. Under Deng, the party amended its charter to ban lifelong tenure for its leaders. Although the age of leaders has declined, no retirement age or term limits have been specified. A 1982 regulation stipulates 8216;8216;among party and state leaders, we need to leave a few old revolutionaries who are over the age limit for retirement.8217;8217;

At the 15th National Congress in 1997, party chiefs reportedly agreed that 70 should be the retirement age for members of the Politburo Standing Committee, the seven-member leadership. However, the rule remains sketchy and unwritten. Some party members say the age actually was set at 72 so that Jiang, then 71, could remain in power while ousting potential rival Qiao Shi, then 73.

8216;8216;There have been changes in the country8217;s political culture, but these are very recent developments,8217;8217; said Ma Qingyu, professor of public administration at the China National School of Administration. In more modern countries, constitutional government 8216;8216;has tamed the despotic and brutal nature of power, while China, by comparison, still shows a predominantly traditional face in this respect,8217;8217; Ma wrote in his recent book, Farewell Sisyphus. Ma cited the worship of power as an enduring feature of Chinese political culture. LA Times-Washington Post