Lula vs Chavez in Mexico City

8226; Calderon is a conservative. So does this mark a reversal of the current trend of left-wing candidates assuming power in Latin America?

Calderon, a 43-yr-old lawyer, is indeed committed to free market. He has countered the former Mexico City mayor, Obrador8217;s populist campaign by promising to draw foreign investment, to consolidate free trade8212;especially with the US. But even for the left spectrum of Mexico8217;s politics, a Hugo Chavez sort of anti-America plank is not possible. Just too many Mexicans count on remittances from family members working across the border. In fact, they account for the largest chunk of foreign exchange after revenue from oil exports.

8226; What about this grandiose talk of 12 elections that could change Latin America?

As Jorge Castaneda, who served as Mexico8217;s foreign minister between 2000 and 2003, has argued, the greater battle being fought in Latin American politics is not between right and left, but between 8220;national interests and ideology8221;. Between November 2005 and December 2006, 12 countries in the region elect a government, and Castaneda8217;s thesis unlocks the message in the vote. See map. That battle is being waged within the left: and the poster boys of the two directions are Brazil8217;s Luiz Inacio Lula de Silva and Venezuela8217;s Hugo Chavez. Both their countries, interestingly, go to polls this year.

8226; Who8217;s winning?

It8217;s a mixed bag. The most dramatic election is of Bolivia8217;s Evo Morales, who has made a flamboyant point by showing up for meetings with heads of state, attired in colourful casual wear. An Aymara Indian, he is the first indiginous president in Bolivia8217;s history and says he is committed to land redistribution. He made his ideological point in Havana recently, where he, along with Fidel Castro and Chavez, announced a people8217;s trade agreement. On May 1, he signalled the nationalisation of national gas, provoking sharp reaction from Brazil, whose energy giant, Petrobras, has made huge investments in Bolivia. Bolivia has the largest reserves of natural gas in the region after Venezuela.

8226; Didn8217;t Chavez also weigh in on the side of a Peruvian candidate?

Yes, Olanta Humala of the Peruvian Nationalist Party, who too campaigned on an agenda of nationalisation. But he lost to centre-left candidate Alan Garcia. This makes the Peruvian presidential election8212;which 16 years ago dashed the hopes of the great novelist, Mario Vargas Llosa8212;an ideal instance of Castaneda8217;s thesis. Garcia was president in 1985-90 and returns to office in support of a free trade agreement with the US and focus on infrastructure, but with a social agenda that includes first priority to taking drinking water to the poor.

Incidentally, Llosa, always a favourite for the Nobel Prize, may have sworn off presidential runs, but a Nobel laureate for peace, alas now leads Costa Rica.

8226; What about Chile and Colombia, who too have given us such great writers?

They are a study in contrasts. Chile was won by Michelle Bachelet this January. She is the first woman president in Latin America who is not the widow of a leading politician. Leading the centre-left four-party Concertacion, she came to office committed to fiscal discipline and pension reform. Things have gone a bit awry, however, on her other priority, education, with school students going on a three-week strike protesting the quality of education. She has also not made much progress in negotiations with La Paz on securing energy supplies, in exchange for giving landlocked Bolivia access to ports.

In Colombia, the pro-United States Alvaro Uribe won re-election by beating his left rival, Carlos Gaviria, by campaigning on law and order especially the fight against FARC guerrillas, who derive much of their clout from the narcotics trade and the economy.

8226; Where does that leave Brazil?

The battlelines are still not totally clear, but Lula8217;s very success may just defeat him. He comes to the home stretch visibly weakened by a corruption scandal. And his opponents could fox him by out-Lula-ing him. Analysts are already portraying his possible rival, Geraldo Alckmin, the centre-left former governor of Sao Paulo. According a report in The Economist: 8220;Beyond his claim of greater integrity, he is offering himself as a Lula-plus: Lula8217;s welfare scheme will be kept, macro-economic stability preserved. But Alckmin promises a tougher line on public spending. This, he maintains, is the key to cutting taxes, interest rates and the value of the real, all of which are keeping economic growth below what it should be.8221;

Their country may have exited shockingly early from the World Cup, but October8217;s elections will keep Brazil8217;s politicians in the news for some months yet.