
THE consequences of China and India emerging as the world8217;s second and third largest economies in the coming decades have been widely analysed. Yet few factor in the reality of a long and contested border between the two nations.
But can India and China be two of the world8217;s fastest growing economies and keep their frontiers closed to each other?
The two nations share a border that8217;s nearly 3,500 km long and runs from Jammu and Kashmir all the way to Arunachal Pradesh. Thanks to the boundary dispute between the two countries, the border witnesses only scanty trade at a few places; elsewhere, the security establishment dominates.
This was not the case in the past. The Sino-Indian frontier was part of the famed Silk Road that connected the world8217;s richest markets. It is the territorial contest between the two nations in the early years after Independence that closed the frontier.
The current extraordinary growth of trade between India and China takes place at the 8216;8216;national8217;8217; level. The expansive frontier regions have little to do with it. This is unwise and unsustainable over the long term.
The logic of economic growth in India and China demands the frontier regions of both the countries8212;Xinjiang, Tibet and Yunnan in China; Kashmir and the Northeast in India8212;be brought closer to each other as well as to global markets.
Ever since Deng Xiaoping opened up China8212;the frontiers had been closed by Mao Zedong for security reasons8212;Beijing has demonstrated greater awareness of the urgency of globalising and integrating its border regions to the mainland as well as linking them to their neigbhouring countries.
China8217;s 8216;Go West8217; strategy, unveiled five years ago, aims to take growth from its eastern coast to the remote western regions. This is perhaps the single biggest frontier development since the westward expansion of America and the east and southward expansion of Russia in the 19th century.
In China, the national security mindset has yielded to the impulses of economic growth and globalisation with regard to frontiers. In India, unfortunately, the focus has remained on closing the border regions.
The Indian establishment is coming to terms with the idea of an open border with Pakistan, but remains fearful of opening the border with China. Instead of protecting its own territory from Chinese goods and trade, India must seek to expand its economic presence in the frontier regions of China.
After all, Xinjiang, Tibet and Yunnan8212;once part of India8217;s economic and cultural hinterland8212;are closer to Delhi than to Beijing. Geography reminds us that Kolkata is the closest port of exit for Lhasa.
By moving towards open frontiers, trans-border transport corridors and transit trade with China,
India will gain access to a market of nearly 400 million people that Beijing is developing under its 8216;Go West8217; strategy.
As their economic influence grows, it will inevitably spill over to neighbouring regions. But India remains uneasy about Chinese presence in south Asia, which it sees as an exclusive sphere of influence. China, similarly, is wary about India8217;s rising profile in southeast Asia. Underlying it is a historical sense of competition between the two countries.
In a globalising Asia, there can be no exclusive spheres of economic influence for either India or China. While elements of political competition will endure for long, India and China today can cooperate with each other for mutual benefit in the economic transformation of their neighbouring regions and force the pace of regional economic integration and globalisation.
THE mutual economic discovery of India and China has just about begun. Greater movement of people, tourists, professionals and businessmen will inevitably accompany the expanding commercial interaction between the two nations.
Air and shipping links will have to expand exponentially to meet the consequences of greater economic engagement. Road networks and mega-energy projects will link their frontier regions to each other and global markets.
While China seems more in tune with these imperatives, India needs to catch up. And the business community must now recognise that India8217;s China policy is too important to be left to the mandarins of the North and South Blocks.