Looking for a miracle worker

If the dismissal of Manohar Joshi by his party chief achieves anything, it is to confirm Bal Thackeray calls the shots. Although sudden, the change at the top in Maharashtra is not expected to affect the stability of the governing Shiv Sena-BJP coalition in the short term.

Both parties understand the rules. Sena ministers are made and unmade at Thackeray8217;s pleasure. Whatever else has changed in recent years, the Sena is still run like a dictatorship. The BJP is believed in the past to have blocked the ascendance of Narayan Rane, Thackeray8217;s choice for new CM. This time, having prevailed on the Test matches, the BJP is more than willing to accommodate his preferences. As for Joshi, he is politic and cautious; he has gone to great lengths to appease his boss. He is an unlikely rebel. Nevertheless, precautions against the emergence of a dissident Sena faction have been taken by throwing out hints of more ministerial changes. It is probable therefore that Thackeray will be able to pull off this dramaticassertion of his authority and keep the coalition intact. The unknown factor is the independents in the Assembly. But having survived for four years on their fickle loyalty, the coalition should be able to manage one more year.One guess about Joshi8217;s abrupt fall from grace is that it preempts bad publicity for the government in the event of an adverse judgment in a land development case in Pune involving his son-in-law. It is also said the Joshi-Thackery equation has been poor for some time. A more substantial and urgent matter for Thackeray is reversing the decline in the Sena8217;s popularity in the year to Assembly elections. On the one hand, he must extract all the mileage he can from government programmes. On the other, he must prevent the BJP from running away with the Hindutva vote. The middle class and small business section of that vote, in particular, has been alienated because of the Sena8217;s strong-arm methods. It is here that Manohar Joshi has let his boss down. Even now the series of populistprogrammes close to Thackery8217;s heart have not taken off. Tendering for a slum housing project now at a small fraction of its original size might start this week.

The one-rupee-meal programme is forgotten. Food prices have not been controlled as promised. Meanwhile the BJP has begun to assert itself.

Not only is it stalling Thackeray8217;s plan to give farmers free electricity, it is making progress on raising cotton procurement prices which will benefit, among others, farmers in BJP constituencies in Vidharbha. With the home portfolio in BJP hands, Joshi has not been able to prevent Sainiks from being charged with vandalism at the BCCI. Consequently, the Sena high command which insisted Sainiks were innocent has lost face in the state and party. Joshi faithfully echoed his boss8217;s wishes but that was not enough. The cruellest blow was allowing the BJP to hog the official publicity for putting up the first of many flyovers in Mumbai, the government8217;s one concrete showpiece. So Joshi has had to make place forsomeone who can make Sena Bhavan8217;s dreams come true. An impossible task by any reckoning.