Lessons in geography

Vladimir Putin says that Russia backs India8217;s bid for a permanent seat in the Security Council. 8220;Mapping the Global Future8221;, ...

Vladimir Putin says that Russia backs India8217;s bid for a permanent seat in the Security Council. 8220;Mapping the Global Future8221;, the final report of the US National Intelligence Council8217;s 2020 Project, says: 8220;The likely emergence of China and India as new major global players 8212; similar to the rise of Germany in the 19th century and the United States in the early 20th century 8212; will transform the geopolitical landscape, with impacts potentially as dramatic as those of the previous two centuries.8221; Ego-boosting? Definitely. Conclusive? Scarcely.

Inflated heads, like inflated balloons, lose themselves in the clouds, becoming out of touch with ground reality. India cannot keep its own neighbours in line leave alone fling its might across the globe. The Americans may think: 8220;India seeks to bolster regional cooperation both for strategic reasons and because of its desire to increase its leverage with the West, including in such organisations as the World Trade Organisation.8221; How does this read given the headless chicken act that was Delhi8217;s response to the royal coup in Nepal?

Come to that, can you name any measures to 8220;bolster regional cooperation8221; which have been made in the nine months of the United Progressive Alliance regime? Has the prime minister visited any of our SAARC neighbours since he took office? Even Chandra Shekhar and Charan Singh found the time. Perhaps, as the 8220;regional power8221;, we expect others to pay homage in New Delhi? Alas, even that is not true.

Few in South Block will admit it today but the fact is that India turned down King Gyanendra when he expressed his desire to come and talk to his Indian counterparts. We brushed him aside, not once, not twice, but thrice! On one occasion we informed Kathmandu that the king could not be received because we were mourning the death of Narasimha Rao, and later it seemed that everyone was concentrating on the post-tsunami relief work. Small wonder if Kathmandu concluded that Indian ministers had no time for Nepal. The truth is that nobody wanted to meet King Gyanendra because nobody had a clue about India8217;s Nepal policy.

Everyone in Kathmandu knew that the Deuba ministry8217;s days were numbered. It was not a question of whether but of when the monarch would strike. Today we are told that the Government of India was taken aback because King Gyanendra had assured Dr Manmohan Singh that he would not do so, intelligence reports to the contrary. Yes, and Chamberlain believed Hitler when the Nazi dictator swore that he had no plans to seize non-German lands!

If true, this shabby explanation 8212; haltingly delivered a week after the royal coup 8212; raises more questions than it answers. Why would the powers that be in Delhi place more faith in a self-serving declaration by a foreign ruler than in its own intelligence agencies? Have ministers lost all faith in the reports that they receive, and if so what do they propose to do by way of restructuring?

May I note that the 8220;explanation8221; from South Block came in the wake of a protest from Buddhadeb Bhattacharya? The chief minister of West Bengal demanded extra policing of the border for fear of refugees fleeing from Nepal. We may safely assume that this precaution 8212; a common-sense reaction to a coup in a neighbouring country 8212; had not been taken, or else he would not have protested. I cannot help wondering if his counterpart in Bihar 8212; which shares a notoriously porous border with Nepal 8212; has also asked for assistance from New Delhi. Given that Rabri Devi and her husband are in the midst of a ferociously fought election campaign, probably not. In any case, does the Union cabinet need to be reminded that manning the nation8217;s frontiers is its duty under the Constitution?

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Where does India go from here? Had we agreed to meet King Gyanendra on any of the three occasions that he himself had suggested, the Government of India could have left him in no doubt about the consequences of dismissing Deuba. In the event, we are left in a no-win situation.

What are India8217;s choices? To back elected politicians is to weaken the monarchy. To oppose democracy is to legitimise the Maoists as the sole credible opposition. If King Gyanendra is now seen cracking under pressure he shall lose influence with the Royal Nepal Army, the politicians, and the Maoists alike. Should he successfully defy New Delhi 8212; perhaps by playing the China card 8212; we bid farewell to all those boasts of being a regional power. In either case, the only ones likely to come out stronger are the Maoists. One set of myopic and cowardly Congressmen have thrown away decades of work against the Naxalites. Perhaps another set of Congressmen 8212; in Delhi rather than in Hyderabad 8212; will be equally quick to embrace the Naxalites8217; murderous brethren in Nepal?

Twenty years ago American intelligence agencies calculated that the Soviet Union was destined to be a superpower for decades to come. They did not foresee that the ramshackle socialist economy could not long sustain the communists8217; imperial ambitions. Have the Americans erred again, overestimating India8217;s potential? If Delhi cannot come up with a solution to regional problems what hope do we have of playing a role on the global stage?

India can play the ostrich in Iraq 8212; and other nations that are relatively far off 8212; and hope to survive. But if we ignore the dangers of a Maoist coup in Nepal we are imitating a different bird 8212; the dodo.