Left in the lurch

Now, across Europe, the populists on the right and the left are challenging the shrinking centre. Those who need to construct broad governing coalitions struggle to match the emotional appeal to grievances, particularly among white working-class voters. In Germany, Die Linke The Left combines the charismatic oppositionist appeal of ex-minister Oskar Lafontaine with remnants of the former East German Communists 8212; and polls at 15 per cent by voicing the fears and anger of the working class. Other voters stay at home, especially in Britain. The growing salience of issues of identity and immigration divide the liberal-intellectual and working-class base.

Yet Europe8217;s left has important reasons to be confident too. First, Europe8217;s centre-right has prospered by aping the centre-left. European conservatism often now means adapting to a broadly social democratic status quo, and seeking modest reforms within it. With the exception of Silvio Berlusconi, most party leaders of Europe8217;s centre-right show no interest in fighting culture wars against liberalism, and most have political beliefs closer to the US Democrats than Republicans. Angela Merkel leads a grand coalition alongside Social Democratic ministers. Sweden8217;s Fredrik Reinfeldt defeated Sweden8217;s dominant Social Democrats with his 8220;New Moderate8221; strategy, and he has been an important model for David Cameron, whose strategy has been to 8220;decontaminate8221; the brand of the British Conservatives by distancing himself from its Thatcherite legacy.

Though Cameron is not typical of Europe8217;s right 8212; he has fallen out with Merkel by pledging to remove his Euro-sceptic party from the international alliance of the mainstream centre-right 8212; he has gone the furthest, rhetorically, in stealing the centre-left8217;s Social Democratic clothes. His claim that his party should be seen as the 8220;true progressives8221; on the issues of social inequality, the environment and global poverty is based on the knowledge that 8220;the state has failed8221; to tackle these urgent issues. What, if anything, exhorting greater social responsibility would mean in government is far from clear, but the political positioning exercise has been effective.

Second, the agenda of European politics is primarily a social democratic one. There is a broad consensus on the importance of a coordinated response to climate change, on renewing transatlantic cooperation through multilateralism, and on the need to rebuild support for global openness by ensuring that the gains are spread more evenly, paying more attention to losers as well as winners. Attacks on the state have less resonance in an economic downturn; public pressure is on governments to act.

Third, within the left, the centrists are winning the battle of ideas. The 1968ers have provided neither new ideas nor new leaders. But the next generation of moderates must prove they are not clones who will become a conservative force by simply rerunning the politics of the last decade. Their slogan 8220;Proud, But Not Satisfied8221; seeks to combine governing credibility and idealism 8212; that they knew why their parties needed to modernise but can remember, too, what they are for. If the Third Way seemed deliberately opaque, this generation is more confident in articulating the ends of reform: a 8220;fairness8221; mission to extend life chances and equal opportunities.

And there is much interest in doing politics differently, adapting the lessons of the Barack Obama campaign in the United States and grass-roots movements like MoveOn.org to European conditions. British Foreign Secretary David Miliband talks of fusing social-democratic, liberal and environmental traditions to create new progressive movements. Three million voters took part in an open primary in Italy 8212; a major innovation in centre-left politics 8212; to elect Walter Veltroni as leader of the new Italian Democratic Party. Sweden8217;s Mona Sahlin has returned the centre-left to a sustained poll lead, while the Reinfeldt government has shifted rightward in office and lost popularity.

When they listen to their opponents8217; ideas, or lack of them, the next generation of social democrats are confident they are winning the battle of ideas. They must now figure out how to win the battle of elections, too.