King checkmated but the game continues

That all options before the king had closed was evident on April 24, when he ceded the power he had hijacked unconstitutionally 15 months ago. Two days before that, the chief of the loyal 8212; and erstwhile 8212; Royal Nepal Army had warned the king of colossal loss of life and property if the king did not give up most of his powers.

But there was still a glimmer of hope, at least for the monarchists, that despite a clearly visible anti-monarchy mood within the movement for democracy, a traditional country with a nearly 85 per cent Hindu population was not yet ready to reduce the institution to a non-entity. Significantly, public disenchantment with the country8217;s Hindu status was a direct fallout of the overt support the palace received from the Vishwa Hindu Parishad and its leader Ashok Singhal, who not only supported the royal takeover but also promised to parade about 2 billion Hindus all over the world in support of the world8217;s only Hindu king. Between a Hindu state and a secular democracy, the Nepalese opted for the second. Rightly so.

The monarchists also pinned their hopes on the confusion and inherent contradictions within the ruling 7-party alliance on some crucial issues, and the palace8217;s penchant for engineering plots and conspiracies.

But all hopes were dashed last Thursday when the declaration took measures to ensure that all possibilities of king ever trying to take power back were scuttled once and for all.

The Government had recently constituted a high-level probe into excesses committed by the state to suppress the movement for democracy. In the process, it arrested at least five former Ministers and suspended three top security chiefs. This and other similar actions had rightly raised concerns over the government8217;s fairness and competence. More seriously, this was taken as a signal that the government would politicise the security forces. But the declaration in Parliament, which reads like the country8217;s agenda forward, has temporarily allayed those fears.

That, however, does not allay Nepal8217;s problems and fears. The Maoists, who have declared a ceasefire and expressed a willingness to join the peace dialogue, are busy with extortion and recruitment to what they call the people8217;s army. Although the government has promised that the dialogue will begin soon, the Maoists8217; attitude has triggered suspicion that they want to use the ceasefire period to consolidate their position, as they8217;ve done twice before.

However, the current situation is different from peace efforts in the past. India, which had played a large role last November in bringing the Maoists and the seven parties to the table of parliamentary democracy, is now rather more wary of the Maoists8217; behaviour. And the rebels moving away from the peace process or continuing with activities like extortion would also give enough space for the international community to question or suspect India8217;s motive behind the initiative it took on Nepal 8212; drawing parallels with what happened in Sri Lanka in the late 1980s.

Significantly, India8217;s position on the Maoist groups in its own country is that the government will not hold any dialogue with them so long as they use violence as an instrument of politics. And while CPIM politburo member Sitaram Yechury hopes that the successful entry of the Maoists in Nepal8217;s political mainstream would inspire Indian Maoists to follow suit, such a quid pro quo does not look likely.

In fact, Nepalese Maoists have already started hard bargaining, demanding the Prime Minister8217;s post in the interim arrangement even before they have agreed to demobilisation of arms 8212; a process which could be a bone of contention between Nepal and India, with the former favouring some degree of international involvement, preferably by the UN, and the latter opposing it.

The failure of the peace process, or its tardy progress, has the potential to sabotage the historic blueprint, a direct outcome of the movement for democracy. In fact, the success of this movement so soon has also sent a warning message to the Maoists that it was also a rejection of violence 8212; state-sponsored and Maoist-sponsored. While the seven-party alliance will continue to receive international and domestic support to move ahead on the declaration, it may be a last chance for the Maoists as their unreasonable demands and behaviour would once again bring them under targeted attack of the international community.

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