Killing several birds with one atom

On the one hand, international pressure has been mounting on India to sign the CTBT in recent months. At the same time, the country8217;s security environment has deteriorated. The latest manifestation of this was the launching of the Pakistani missile Ghauri, which illustrated the highly sophisticated military relationship between Pakistan and China. The BJP chose to exercise the option, advocated by many security experts in recent years 8212; tosign the CTBT after demonstrating its nuclear prowess.

Much will now depend on the political skills with which the government carries out negotiations with the western nations on technology transfers and limitations of manufacturing the weapons before signing the test ban treaty.

At the popular level, today8217;s tests were seen as the Vajpayee government cocking a snook at the U S. For only yesterday, U S President Bill Clinton was threatening economic sanctions and urging India to sign the CTBT unconditionally. Today, as if by way of response, the Government went ahead and exploded two more devices. Suddenly, Vajpayee is seen to be asserting his authority and the explosions would give his government a breather to consolidate its position.

But the raison d8217;etre of the Government8217;s action could not be to lift its sagging morale for the simple reason that the excitement generated by the Pokhran explosions need not last long 8212; unless it is followed up by a whole set of other actions. In May 1974, IndiraGandhi had also created similar ripples and she too was besieged by problems at the time. The Nav Nirman Samiti agitation of Gujarat was on, and there was widespread unrest in the country against spiralling prices. But within months of Pokhran-I, she had a JP movement on her hands, and in a year8217;s time she had to impose the Emergency.

Preparation for an election could not be the only motive for going in for nuclear explosions, though it could be a by-product. Had that been the case, the BJP should have opted for it a few months later, just before the assembly elections are due in some States. Today, if elections are held in Rajasthan, where the nuclear explosions took place, the Congress may well lose. This is conceded by many Congressmen. But six months down the line, its impact would have dissipated.

The reason therefore has to lie elsewhere. Clinton, who was coming to India in November, was not expected to go back empty-handed, and the CTBT has been his pet theme. The exercise of the nuclear option hasbeen a commitment made by the BJP in its manifesto and in the national agenda for governance. Clinton8217;s special envoy Bill Richardson had during his visit here last month urged the Government to resist from such a course till the US President8217;s visit was over.

India8217;s capability to do what it did this week was not acquired overnight or during the 50 days of BJP rule. Vajpayee8217;s three predecessors desisted from exercising the option. The development of D Plus ten8217;, which was a euphemism for a 10-day readiness period, was developed even in Narasimha Rao8217;s time.