Kargil echo in Pak purchases

US deputy Secretary for Defence Richard Armitage had stated on a Pakistani TV channel last month that 8216;8216;We have gotten sic now a...

US deputy Secretary for Defence Richard Armitage had stated on a Pakistani TV channel last month that 8216;8216;We have gotten sic now a steady stream of dependable funding to help the Pakistani armed forces. We realise they need the proper equipment, so we have embarked on a five-year programme of support.8217;8217; He, of course, was referring to the 1.5 billion military aid that Pakistan is receiving from the US over the next five years, besides over a billion dollars worth of equipment it has already received in the past two years. The arms supplies have been facilitated by awarding Pakistan with the title of 8216;Major Non-NATO Ally8217; and numerous means are being found to make it easier for Pakistan to receive arms quickly at low prices.

For example, the US is on the verge of exporting 26 Bell 412 utility helicopters to Pakistan under a commercial lease agreement. These helicopters, which can carry up to 15 passengers as troop transport, would originate from the company8217;s manufacturing site in Canada whose laws do not allow such exports. So they would be shipped to the US and then exported to Pakistan as civilian equipment, which does not have to go through the same rigorous controls as that for a military helicopter. On the cards also are 16 out of the requested 71 F-16 multi-role combat aircraft according to the Pakistan Air Force chief. Other American supplies to Pakistan include up to eight long-range, upgraded P-3C Orion maritime patrol-strike aircraft, over 2,000 TOW-2A anti-tank missiles, six Phalanx 20mm rapid-fire guns for naval ships, new air-surveillance radars including those mounted on six aerostat L-88 balloons to give them longer range, besides a number of C-130 transport aircraft.

US arms transfers to Pakistan, of course, are being justified on grounds of Pakistan being an ally of the US in its war against terrorism. An assessment of the quality and extent of Pakistan8217;s cooperation in that war must be left to another time and place. But Pakistan is also shopping in China, Sweden and other countries for weapons. It has recently acquired additional batches of the F-7G, the Chinese-made technologically upgraded with Russian assistance MiG-21 fighters to boost its existing strength. It will receive 150 FC-1 fighters from the Sino-Pakistan joint programme. Swedish Grippen combat aircraft is a candidate; and so is the airborne early warning systems form Sweden.

What we should look at closely is the fact that Pakistan8217;s thrust for arms acquisition is focused on air force systems, with naval capabilities coming next. In an army-dominated military system and army-ruled state, this merits attention. Islamabad realised during the Kargil War that while its assumption was that the Indian Army has been badly strained by continuing internal security commitments, and its weapons capability had been degraded by lack of modernisation, it suddenly came up against the Indian Air Force on one side and the Indian Navy on the other. And India did not react as expected across the international border where Pakistan could expect to impose a stalemate and a ceasefire due to the spectre of a nuclear 8216;8216;flash point8217;8217; cultivated by it assiduously for years and propagated in the West, for other reasons. The aim was to get a ceasefire with the Pakistan Army occupying substantive territory across the Line of Control, thereby negating the Simla Agreement and altering the very discourse on Kashmir. Thus while the Pakistan Air Force was flying patrols across the Line of Control with its F-16s during the Kargil War, it opted to watch paralysed and not interfere while its troops were being subjected to incessant air and ground assault by the Indian Army and Air Force.

Less than three years later, it was faced with an even more difficult situation when India mobilised after the suicide terrorist attack on Parliament on December 13, 20018212;India 8216;9/118217;. As in 1999, the Indian Air Force and Indian Navy combat capabilities had been degraded by long years of neglect but both still had a clear edge over the Pakistan Air Force and its Navy in qualitative and quantitative terms. Given the reality of nuclear weapons, combat on land is more likely to lead to a stalemate than produce any meaningful results. Air strikes by India in Pakistan Occupied Kashmir would have left Islamabad with few options; and a similar situation obtained at sea. Islamabad could either decide to engage IAF and Indian Navy and suffer greater attrition with a clear prospect of losing, or try and stay out of fight. Army leadership in Pakistan finally realised that air power and naval forces would be critical in future conflicts and decided to opt out, though forced to roll back terrorism. And hence the focus on air force and naval modernisation and arms acquisitions now.