J038;K visit: what146;s next?

Although Prime Minister Manmohan8217;s visit to Jammu and Kashmir has been successful in creating a new opportunity for progress, it has left some key issues unresolved. The prime minister will have to contend with three paradoxes. The first is the paradox of representation. Who should we take as legitimate representatives of the people of Kashmir? The prime minister8217;s speech was an attempt to win the hearts and minds of ordinary Kashmiris directly. But any concrete political dialogue will have to be mediated through representatives. The conundrum is this: on the one hand, the elected government of J038;K has not been given the kind of mandate that makes it unproblematically representative of the Kashmiri people. On the other hand, groups like the Hurriyat, which have been in the vanguard of popular mobilisation in Kashmir, have never had their strength tested in an open political contest. The prime minister will therefore have to strike a balance between treating various groups as representative. He cannot ignore even hardline elements within the Hurriyat; nor can he give them veto power.

The second issue is the paradox of talks without preconditions. Literally speaking such a thing is an impossibility. The Hurriyat seems to be saying: if the government is genuinely interested in talks without preconditions why does it exclude them the minute it raises certain demands like travelling to Pakistan. Either the talks are unconditional or they are not. If they are, the Hurriyat8217;s positions should not be an obstacle to dialogue. The government, however, seems to be saying: if the Hurriyat is interested in unconditional dialogue why does it continue to put demands like being allowed to travel to Pakistan? In other words, each side accuses the other of covertly smuggling in pre-conditions. The only sensible way out of this impasse is for the government to accede to, at this stage, those demands of the Hurriyat that do not prejudice the core interests of the Indian position. Letting them travel to Pakistan is one of these conditions. Call the Hurriyat8217;s bluff.

The third paradox is this: where will Kashmir be represented in the India-Pakistan dialogue? Is Kashmir an India-Pakistan dispute or a Government of India-Kashmiri people dispute? The answer usually given is: both. But India8217;s strategy has been to have a parallel track dialogue process to address these concerns. But Hurriyat is asking the question: What is going to be the relationship between these two dialogues? If India-Pakistan are going to settle Kashmir, where does the Kashmir-government dialogue fit in? On the other hand, if the government is going to work out a deal with the Kashmiris, where will this leave Pakistan? We do not yet have a framework for linking the two dialogues, and therein may lie a catch.