Jaswant visit a win-win situation

It is in this context of a swiftly changing world, where former enemies and friends are assuming different roles overnight, that Singh is making his visit to China.

Only a year ago, India and China were at each other8217;s throats, each accusing the other of 8220;hegemonistic8221; designs in the region. New Delhi had just conducted its nuclear tests and squarely blamed Beijing as its chief reason for doing so. It was their bitterest face-off since the 1962 war.

However, on the eve of Singh8217;s visit, the first by an Indian minister ineight years, the anger and fury is tempered with a realism that 8220;ancient civilizations8221; could perhaps put their past behind them and look to another tomorrow.

quot;We do look forward to a very positive interaction between the two countries during the visit of the external affairs minister to China,8221; Indian Ambassador Vijay K Nambiar said. 8220;We think the stage has been set for normal relations between our two countries.quot;

Behind this rediscovered cordiality, of course, lies hard-nosed realpolitik: in the wake of the bombing of its embassy in Belgrade and the consequent establishment-driven anti-US protests in Beijing, China is re-examining the public benefits of a 8220;multipolar world.8221; And while it continues to quietly do business with Washington, the Chinese establishment is not averse to using a newly nuclear, but rather pacifist neighbour, with which to score propaganda points.

For India, the stakes are much higher: at the very least, Singh will use the opportunity to explain Pakistan8217;s blatantviolations of the Line of Control to his counterpart, Tang Jiaxuan. But this visit, the purpose of which is to get the relationship properly back on track, will also be used to explore the possibility of forward movement in areas as diverse as the border issue and trade and investment.

New Delhi8217;s sense, however, remains clear: With its large army, its nuclear and missile arsenal and its enormous economic clout a 60 billion trade surplus with the US, China remains an incredibly formidable force to deal with.

Both sides are still likely, though, to skirt the nuclear issue, the key to their highly ambivalent relationship. The Indian side will bring up reports of Chinese help towards developing the Pakistani nuclear establishment, while Beijing will continue to insist that India, having violated the international nuclear regime, must first make amends. It is within these delicately nuanced parameters that the talks will take place.

On the Kargil conflict, Singh is likely to find vindication of NewDelhi8217;s position, effectively signifying that at least on this issue, Pakistan8217;s international isolation is complete. Beijing, despite its old yearning to neutralise India in the region, has even during the antagonistic post-Pokharan months clearly endorsed the sanctity of the Line of Control.

At a Security Council meeting last year, within three weeks of India8217;s tests, China8217;s representative Qin Huasun, while scolding India and Pakistan for violating the nuclear lakshman rekha, said, 8220;In Kashmir, India and Pakistan should respect and adhere to the Control Line. They should under no circumstances step across the Control Line or seek to change the state of affairs in the region unilaterally. On this basis, the countries should look for a solution acceptable to both sides8230;8221;

Chinese President Jiang Zemin effectively had the same message for Islamabad, in what is considered a 8220;watershed8221; visit to the sub-continent in October 1996 in New Delhi the two sides signed an agreement on maintaining peace andtranquility on the Line of Actual Control separating them.

Singh8217;s visit to Beijing, however, is by no means a Pakistan-centric affair. It signifies the long distance both nations have travelled since China first made the demand last year that India first 8220;untie the knot8221;. The Indian leadership has since, on more than one occasion, publicly said that New Delhi wants a 8220;friendly, egalitarian8221; relationship.