It could be touch amp; go for Vajpayee

While the DMK has dumped the Third Force by deciding to back the Government, its ally in the State, the Tamil Maanila Congress, is expected to abstain in the vote which is scheduled for Saturday noon. TMC MPs were heard berating the Congress for not even seeking their support. The tone of the Left towards the AIADMK has already changed and new alignments are already in the offing. Earlier, the CPM and the CPI had refused to back any arrangement with the AIADMK in it.

Managers on both sides were feverishly at work mobilising the numbers today. On the BJP side, is the triumvirate of GeorgeFernandes, Pramod Mahajan and P R Kumaramangalam. Fernandes has been working on the Janata Dal, Kumaramangalam on the AIADMK, but neither party is breaking.

They have been assisted by Bhairon Singh Shekhawat who has been camping in Delhi and has managed to wean away RJP8217;s Anand Mohan Singh from the other side. Murli Manohar Joshi has been in touch with his rakhi sister Mayawati. Party MP Arif Mohammed Khan was heard commenting that the BSP was interested in early elections and frequent polls.

The Prime Minister and the Home Minister had personally spoken to M Karunanidhi and Murasoli Maran has been a go-between. The survival of the BJP Government has become crucial for the DMK which would, with the help of a friendly Centre, try and corner Jayalalitha.

On the Opposition side, Jayalalitha has emerged as the new 8220;sutradhar8221; in the whole drama. With the highest stakes now in the formation of an alternative Government, she met Sonia Gandhi today and is expected to meet Mulayam Singh Yadav.Yesterday, she had called on veteran kingmaker Harkishen Singh Surjeet and Laloo Yadav, and Om Prakash Chautala, who has emerged as the man most sought after by both sides. Jayalalitha has let it be known that her party is open to the idea of staying out of the next Government if necessary.

Sonia Gandhi has set up her own war council, allocating specific work to different leaders. She will herself deal directly with Jayalalitha, and they will have to resolve the tricky issue of the induction of Subramanian Swamy into the Cabinet of the alternative government, if the BJP ministry falls.

Sharad Pawar has been assigned the task of dealing with the Rashtriya Loktantrik Morcha of Laloo Yadav and Mulayam Singh. Manmohan Singh is talking to a group in the Akali Dal close to G S Tohra along with Surjeet. Bhajan Lal has to ensure that Chautala does vote against the Government on April 17. The entry in Parliament house of Chautala and Bhajan Lal together today had tongues wagging in the Central Hall.

ThoughChautala has said that he would be voting against the Government, surprisingly his statement is not being taken seriously. Many suspect that he is driving a hard bargain with the BJP which is in touch with his four MPs in the Haryana Lok Dal. It is not possible for the BJP to agree to his demand to dump its ally Bansi Lal and it remains to be seen if he accepts the promise of an electoral alliance with the BJP in Haryana at the appropriate time, which is what the party is learnt to have offered him.

The BJP had tried to use the services of Chandra Shekhar to work on Chautala earlier this week. Both Jaswant Singh and Shekhawat had called on the former Prime Minister who then met Prime Minister Vajpayee. But for all his reservations about Sonia, Chandra Shekhar is not expected to vote in favour of the Government.

Besides the HLD and the BSP, the other group to watch is the Samata party. Kalpnath Rai has already expressed himself against the Government and the RJD and the Congress have been targeting a groupof five within the Samata. MP Shakuni Chowdhury8217;s wife has already joined the RJD Government in Bihar.

Surprisingly, there was neither tension nor excitement in Parliament House today as the debate on the confidence motion began. With confidence debates becoming a frequent event in recent years 8212; there were two in 1997 and one in 1998 8212; members have become bored.

With the numbers tantalisingly close, another category of MPs that have become important are the Independents. There was a time when there was a price for the vote of an MP. This time round, there seems to be a price even for abstentions by MPs. The greater the absenteeism in the Lok Sabha on Saturday, the more the chances of the Government8217;s survival. The BJP managers are working overtime to bring this about.

What they want

For the BJP-led Govt to survive, this is its ideal scenario: