Is there a way out in Sri Lanka?

Amidst the global war on terrorism launched by the US after September 11, 2001 and the military impasse between the Tigers and the government, Norwegian mediator Erik Solheim brokered a ceasefire between the two sides in February 2002 and talks began on a federal solution with substantive autonomy for Tamils in September 2002.

But by early 2003 the talks which focused on a full range of issues, especially on the nature of the interim government in the Tamil-controlled north and the east, began to stall. Even the tsunami which devastated Sri Lanka has failed to get the two sides together and there has been no agreement on how to provide relief to tsunami victims.

Meanwhile the ceasefire appears to have broken down with both sides violating the agreement. Tensions have been simmering since last year’s presidential election in which Mahinda Rajapakse beat Ranil Wickremesinghe. Last week, in a daring attack within the Sri Lankan Army headquarters in Colombo, a Tamil suicide bomber killed 11 people and critically wounded Army Commander Sarath Fonseka. In retaliation, Colombo ordered air and artillery strikes against LTTE positions in the Tamil-dominated territory in the north and east of the island. The past few weeks, which saw nearly 120 people killed, marks the biggest surge of the violence in the island since a ceasefire came into effect in 2002.

Even as the government of Sri Lanka and the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam say they are ready to come back to the negotiating table, and the international community tries to save a collapsing peace process, all indications are that the situation in the emerald island would get worse before it could get any better.

What

Renewed violence in Sri Lanka as the peace talks between the government and LTTE teeters on the edge.

Why

In the 2005 presidential elections, Mahinda Rajapakse played on the fears that Colombo had ceded too much to the LTTE under Norway’s pressure. The Tigers, meanwhile, ensured the defeat of the more conciliatory Ranil Wickramasinghe. This led to speculation the LTTE had had enough of peace. Ruling members think a military victory is possible, while the LTTE is keen to demonstrate its capacity to strike terror at will.

Who else

Karuna, the LTTE rebel. The Tigers says the government is collaborating with a man they loathe. Colombo argues the LTTE has sought to use the peace process to curb all dissent in the areas controlled by it.

The 6th What Next

Canada, India and the US have banned the LTTE as a terrorist outfit. A similar EU move is being threatened to bring the LTTE around. The global community has also pressed Colombo to stop its attacks against the Tigers. The immediate problem of transporting LTTE commanders in the east to rebel-controlled territory in the North—cited by Prabhakaran for pulling out of the Geneva talks—should be resolved.

But few in Sri Lanka believe the two sides are anywhere near a return to a genuine engagement.