Is there a Plan B?

Pakistan is the best excuse invented for India8217;s dysfunctional politics to avoid all challenges.

Pakistan is the best excuse invented for India8217;s dysfunctional politics to avoid all challenges. The 26/11 attacks have produced a standard Pakistan-bashing exercise. Politicians know this will unite Indians. They have nothing more substantial to offer. There will be all those proposals about Federal Agency, etc., which have been knocking around for years. After a brief show of unity in the Lok Sabha, things will get back to normal soon. As for Pakistan, I predict that the bravado would lead to nothing more than long diplomatic wrangles, UN intervention and hot air. How will our belligerent politicians climb down when no one has been extradited?

It cannot go on like this. It8217;s not just about public outcry. The failure all around us is visibly palpable and every day brings forward the full story of neglect and laziness shown by the bureaucracy. Was it not significant that for nearly 20 hours after the first attack on 26/11, no politician could spare a few minutes to tell the public that everything would be fine? Bombay lived those 60 hours without politics and politicians while the armed forces and police fought a battle with one hand tied behind their backs. Should India8217;s voters not find better masters?

Not one VIP has yet given up their Z security cover, not even Rahul Baba, though he did mention it in his speech. Home Minister P. Chidambaran should cancel the cover for every VIP, except the President and the PM. That would show some sacrifice. Does Vilasrao Deshmukh still enjoy Z security?

Leave that aside. What about the economy? Two months ago, I was projecting a growth rate nearer 5 per cent than the euphoric forecasts being made by the Government and RBI. Now with the October industrial production numbers out, some sobriety is in order. Enough early warnings were ignored about terror attacks. But why do the same with the economy? The Prime Minister is duly respected for his role in liberal reform and his astute stewardship as the leader of Team Manmohan. But how can he hope to be FM as well as PM, not to mention the ten other departments he is running? Chidambaran said as much in the nicest way when he reluctantly gave up his portfolio to take up Home Ministry. The PM, he said, is the right person to do the job he had been doing full time. What, on one-twelfth of his time?

India cannot and should not take sustained growth for granted. India is not immune to the ongoing recession. It has also added its own woes by politicising growth as it did in Singur in West Bengal. The RBI was very clumsy earlier in 2008 with its policies in the face of imported inflation and has been too late on the rebound. The stimulus package unveiled last week was given apologetically, adding that there is a next one on its way. Why the delay?

Forecasters and soothsayers have been talking of India and China as growing forever and ever till 2050. But that is just using a compound growth rate table. Japan shows how growth can falter and stop. China is beginning to face problems. There is nothing automatic about India8217;s growth. It has been in the 7 per cent plus range only for about six years and that could slip. For 15 years, India has enjoyed the benefits of global growth thanks to the brilliant timing of reforms in 1991. Even then it took ten more years for growth to get to a reasonable rate. Slip now and it would take ages to recover.

The rapid growth has provided a cushion for Mandal and other irrationalities of coalition politics. If the growth falters, then there will be real violence as the competition for scarce resources mounts. When that happens, there will be no Pakistan to blame.