Iran8217;s time bomb

The 80 per cent of the population working in the private sector struggles mightily to make a living in the 20 per cent of the economy that is not controlled by the government. The end product is a frustration edging into resentment that informs every private conversation with ordinary Iranians and frames every public issue.

It explains the stunning landslide victory 10 months ago of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the only candidate in the presidential race who campaigned against the rich. Dissatisfaction also accounts for much of the public support for Iran8217;s nuclear programme, despite widespread disdain for the ruling mullahs. In a country where time has seemed to stand still for a quarter-century, the public associates nuclear energy with economic development.

8220;The city of Shaft is just like anywhere else in the country,8221; said Jafar Shalde, the owner of a housewares shop whose business on a recent morning consisted of one transaction: A woman returned the shelving she8217;d bought the day before, and Shalde gave her 3 back.

Shaft rests in the low-lying vermillion countryside below the Caspian Sea, its main street of tidy shops curving gently. The surrounding valley is checkered by rice paddies, and families lucky enough to own one, eat the harvest themselves. Though economists call the region prosperous compared with most of Iran, residents say they need two jobs to survive. The local string factory, which used to employ 400, now has work for fewer than 100.

8220;Opium, yes. You can smell it in the evening,8221; Shalde said of the drug many in Iran 8212; more than in any other country in the world, according to UN figures 8212; use to fill days not filled by jobs.

At 64, Shalde is old enough to remember Iran8217;s 1979 revolution, defined for Americans by the hostage crisis. Iranians recall it differently.

8220;It was because of the Shah,8221; Shalde said, referring to Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi. 8220;There was no equality between classes. There was a gap between people, and our imam said the reason was the Shah, and he asked us to demonstrate against him.8221;

The mullahs took control, but the gap remained, though the government declines to measure income differences.

8220;In my view, 1 per cent may be getting equal to the next 30 per cent of the population,8221; said Ali Rashidi, a prominent economist and former Central Bank official. 8220;You can see it.8221;

Iranians say they do. They call a rich man 8220;the son of a cleric8221;, shorthand for the insider government connections crucial to any enterprise here. The richest person in Iran is believed to be Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, a mid-level cleric who served two terms as President in the 1990s and outspent his opponents in an attempt to return to office last year.

His accession was preempted by Ahmadinejad, who surged ahead on the strength of a half-hour campaign video. Broadcast nationwide in a nightly candidate showcase, it made no mention of wiping Israel off the map or even nuclear power.

It simply showed that he lived in a modest house, worked long hours as Tehran8217;s mayor and clearly savoured contact with the common folk.

8220;I saw him on television,8221; said Shalde, in the stillness of his shop. 8220;I didn8217;t vote for his promises. I just looked at him and saw he was just like us.8221;

That Ahmadinejad even made promises was unusual for a candidate in Iran. He vowed to 8220;put oil money on the sofre the dining cloth that in an Iranian household is the equivalent of the kitchen table8221;. Iran8217;s petroleum reserves are the second largest of any OPEC country. And only Russia has more natural gas.

But great chunks of the income from oil already go to keeping public anger at bay. Iran will spend 25 billion this year to hold down the prices of flour, rice, even gasoline. With insufficient refining capacity, Iran imports more gas than any nation except the United States.

8220;Instability and mental insecurity would result from increasing the price of such products in society,8221; Ahmadinejad said in announcing retention of the subsidies. His first budget also included 19 billion to create the new jobs the economy is failing to generate at the rate young Iranians enter the marketplace, a staggering 1 million a year.

8220;Work,8221; said Sassan Ataei, 18, 8220;is in Tehran. That8217;s where our peers go.8221;

At 11 on a weekday morning, Ataei was headed down a barren side street toward a teahouse where the unemployed young men of Shaft put their effort into leisure. Everlast, Puma 8212; it8217;s all about the shoes in the bare, tiled room where young men of working age pass the daylight hours smoking water pipes.

The new president has brought a glimmer, however. Mojtaba Dejahang, 23, voted for a reformist candidate but now approves of the hardline conservative who emphasised economic issues over personal freedoms.

8220;Bread is important,8221; said Dejahang, who lives with his parents despite holding an engineering degree. 8220;I think ordinary people do love him and trust him, especially with his position on the nuclear issue. We believe with nuclear power Iran will speed up development.8221;

As he spoke, other young patrons chimed in. 8220;I want to make one point clear,8221; Mani Jalili announced, by way of introduction. 8220;If Americans attack the city of Shaft, I will defend it.8221;

Atta Jafarzadeh, 17, wore suede sneakers and an injured look. 8220;We are the generation born after the revolution,8221; he implored. 8220;We have no bad memories of the Americans.8221;

8220;Unless you have jobs for everyone, democracy will never take root here,8221; said Zirak Shafti, 39, who said his advertising business was faltering. 8220;That8217;s why no government ever succeeded here. It was always dependent on oil. It wanted to control everything.8221;

At Fatemeh Jaberoodi8217;s home, the grown children not at work took seats along the living room wall. Only the oldest has a job 8212; a bank clerk position inherited from his father. Except for another child in Germany, the entire brood, seven adults, survives on the rice from a small paddy plus Jaberoodi8217;s husband8217;s pension 8212; 77 a month.

The fixed amount shrinks with each uptick of inflation, a chronic condition in Iran that ran at 15 per cent last year.

Her daughters sat silently. Ameneh, at 30 the eldest, had a computer degree and a good lead on a job with an automaker but the family lacked the clout 8220;to push the matter through8221;, her mother said. 8220;If people have got links inside the government, it8217;s easy. For ordinary people, not a chance. There8217;s a lot of talk about justice, but there8217;s not equality of opportunity.8221;

Sajad, 23, stood up. His mother frowned. 8220;We don8217;t have enough money to start a business for him,8221; she lowered her voice. 8220;My main concern is that without a job he doesn8217;t become addicted to drugs. He got up at 12, had lunch, watched a bit of TV. Now he8217;s going out to run around with his friends,8221; she said. 8220;I can8217;t stop him.8221;
LAT-WP