Iran on their mind

This is the same programme that has its roots in the military understanding reached by Iranian officials and Pakistani President Zia ul Haq in 1987 and which the late Benazir Bhutto confirmed was necessitated by Pakistan8217;s need for 8216;strategic depth8217;. For the Israelis, Iran is a strategic threat to their very existence, underlined by the threats from Iranian President Ahmedinejad to eliminate the Jewish state.

The NIE analysis has created tensions between the Israelis and their American allies. Earlier evidence of tension between Washington and Jerusalem includes protests from US government officials who are said to have strongly protested to their Israeli counterparts over a series of statements made by senior Israeli officials in response to the report exonerating Iran. Following the protest, Israeli PM Ehud Olmert called his cabinet colleagues and told them to hold back from from publicly criticising the report or the Bush Administration.

The Americans are said to have been especially annoyed by statements from Police Minister Avi Dichter, who warned that US 8216;misconceptions8217; regarding Iran could trigger a new Middle East war. 8220;We were unable to convince the US of the immediacy and proximity of the Iranian nuclear threat,8221; he explained. 8220;The area threatened by Iranian missiles is now within its strike range, and includes most North African, as well as European, countries.8221;

A former Shin Bet chief and current minister, Ami Ayalon, urged the Israeli government to work toward forming a regional anti-Iranian alliance. He said Israel should consider Iran as a 8220;threat to all pragmatic players in the region.8221; Ayalon also mocked the US intelligence assessment, adding that Washington8217;s report on Iran8217;s nuclear programme is 8220;probably wrong.8221;

The report has generated problems at home for Prime Minister Olmert, who is under attack from his political opponents for handling the Iranian threat in an 8216;irresponsible manner8217; by failing to convince the Americans about Tehran8217;s efforts to achieve nuclear weapons. Uri Ariel, a prominent member of one of Israel8217;s right-wing parties, said 8220;the publication of the report testifies to the extent of the government8217;s irresponsibility. They have promised us for years that the Americans will take care of the Iranian nuclear issue, but now it is clear that they have shirked responsibility for the issue. Blame for this screw-up falls even more strongly on Strategic Affairs Minister Avigdor Lieberman as it is his paramount duty to guarantee coordination with the United States regarding this threat.8221;

Lieberman, who joined the cabinet earlier this year to deal specifically with the alleged Iranian nuclear threat, defended his government8217;s policy by calling Iran 8220;the foundation of the Axis of Evil8221; and that full cooperation with the US regarding Iran continues.

Lieberman said that one must also read the 8216;fine print8217; in the American report. 8220;Unlike the Security Council8217;s decision, the report claims that they are continuing to enrich uranium. Is there another UN member nation in the world that so often declares its intention to destroy Israel?8221; Lieberman wondered aloud.

Some security experts say they don8217;t rule out the possibility that the Israelis may decided to launch their own military strike against Iran, just as they did with the Iraqi nuclear reactor in the early 1980s and an alleged nuclear plant in Syria last September. Former CIA official Bruce Riedel, who visited Israel late last year, said he emerged with the impression that Israel would attack Iran. Citing conversations he had in Israel with officials in the Mossad secret service and the Israeli defence establishment, Riedel concluded in an article published in Newsweek that 8220;Israel is not going to allow its nuclear monopoly to be threatened.8221;

Some US experts doubt Israel8217;s ability to tackle Iran alone, but David Albright, of the institute for Science and International Security in Washington, has argued that although information on the exact location of Iran8217;s nuclear facility is incomplete, Israel8217;s air strike on an alleged Syrian nuclear facility last September 6 could be seen as a test run for any future strike on Iran8217;s facilities, as well as a direct warning to Tehran.

In an effort to reach out to his Israeli critics, Bush conceded last weekend in an interview with the Hebrew language Yedioth Ahronot, 8220;In essence what the report said was that Iran had a secret plan to develop nuclear weapons8230; to conclude from the intelligence report that there is no Iranian plan to develop nuclear weapons is only a partial truth.8221;

Whether this new perspective is enough to hold Israel from striking out on its own remains to be seen. In the words of Gilbert Kahn, professor of political science at Kean University in Union, New Jersey, Washington has abandoned its main ally to face an existential threat. 8220;It appears that the state of Israel may once again be facing a potential existential threat alone,8221; Dr Kahn said.

Israel, he added, can8217;t afford 8216;mistakes8217; by its allies, especially when they pose an existential threat. 8220;They need to refocus the US on Iran8217;s nuclear ambitions despite the new assessment, persuade other nations to keep the economic pressure on Tehran, and harness the Saudis8217; overwhelming self-interest. Time is fleeting.8221;

The writer is former diplomatic editor of the London 8216;Observer8217; ShyamBhatiacompuserve.com