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India doesn8217;t follow the normal election conventions. Violence and stuffed ballot boxes scarcely raise an eyebrow. Issues that might be expected to dominate 8212; candidates8217; criminal pasts, peace with Pakistan, a pogrom that claimed more than 1,000 lives 8212; are almost no issue at all. And in contrast to their media-hogging western counterparts, the two main leaders never, ever speak to the press, at least to us foreigners.

So after days of fruitlessly trailing his mother across Andhra Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh, when Rahul Gandhi pulled up to relieve himself on the side of a road outside Amethi, photographer Prashant Panjiar and I cast aside our usual rule about not interviewing peeing politicians and pounced.

Rahul had only been a politician for three days by then and didn8217;t know he could tell us to go away. Instead, he offered me a lift in his car, on the back seat next to Robert Vadra and Priyanka.

For an hour, we talked about the duty of dynasty, about helping the poor, about how Tony Blair reformed Labour in Britain and how Rahul dreamed faintly of doing the same to the Congress. Rahul was articulate, knowledgeable and earnest. 8216;8216;I want to look after people here,8217;8217; said Rahul, 8216;8216;to have a relationship with them.8217;8217;

The evening before, I8217;d hopped onto Lal Krishna Advani8217;s bus as he approached Ayodhya. There was an awkward moment when I found myself next to Pioneer editor Chandan Mitra 8212; the man did once try to have me deported 8212; but Advani was as genial and accommodating as ever.

He was also very candid about the ruthless exigencies of politics. 8216;8216;At different points of time, we choose different agendas,8217;8217; he said. 8216;8216;In the 1980s and 1990s, the Ayodhya issue came to the fore and we utilised that. Now the focus is the economy and we have moved to dominate that agenda.8217;8217;

And when I got down at a rally about 30 km from Ayodhya, Advani gave an impressive display of such expediency. After assuring me for half an hour that economic development was the BJP priority, he took the stage and bellowed: 8216;8216;We will build a Ram temple to Ayodhya. India will be Ram8217;s kingdom once more.8217;8217;

The thing is, again, defying world convention, Indian politics is full of charmers. Rahul, Advani, even, I understand, Sonia Gandhi and Atal Behari Vajpayee. Even Praveen Togadia who, after declaring there are 50 million jihadis in India and every last one should be executed, tries to load you up with as much cow urine potion as you can carry to take home.

But there8217;s also a level of venal cynicism that, at least in this foreign correspondent8217;s experience, can be truly world-beating. Advani8217;s honest admissions pale in comparison to Jayalalithaa8217;s use of state machinery to harass and jail her opponents.

How can Mayawati possibly claim to represent Dalits when she spends hundreds of thousands of rupees on her 47th birthday party, including diamonds and a 51 kg cake? How can anyone even consider an alliance with Laloo Prasad Yadav?

Seven months after the Gujarat riots, I rode with Narendra Modi around the state on his yatra. After two days8217; listening to his rhetoric, and then watching Modi transform into a perfectly decent human being once back inside his bus, I became convinced Modi was a sham. He didn8217;t believe a word. It was all for show. In the same way, Advani8217;s speech outside Ayodhya was just for show.

Sonia8217;s hundreds of promises to supporters on the campaign trail that, yes, she8217;d fix the water, plug in the electricity, re-open the factory? All for show.

The West may hold the monopoly on the really big politicians8217; lies 8212; weapons of mass destruction, anyone? But there8217;s something about the casual and personal insincerity of Indian politics 8212; lying to squatters, deceiving beggars, giving false hope to drought-stricken farmers 8212; that is deeply disturbing.

When I got down from Rahul8217;s car, I told him he was probably too nice to succeed in politics. 8216;8216;Just because all other politicians are nasty, we don8217;t have to follow,8217;8217; he replied. It8217;s the same innocent impulse that prompts him to smile at reporters when they accost him as he goes to the lavatory. Sadly, I expect he8217;ll learn.

PREDICTION: The NDA, more or less

Urban shine, rural moonshine

Randeep Ramesh

By gaslight in the village of Humantnagar, an hour8217;s drive from Ayodhya, the BJP8217;s candidate Laloo Singh was making a pitch for votes. Singh8217;s salestalk was of roads, water, electricity and India8217;s 120 foreign reserves.

What the flickering light on the villager8217;s faces illuminated was at best indifference and at worst hostility. The road to Humantnagar is a bumpy ride. There is electricity for a few hours in the day. Singh has been parachuted in and his predecessor run for another seat 8212; a practice not suited to parliamentary democracy.

8216;8216;What use is all this money if none comes to the village. My son has not been able to get a job for a year,8217;8217; was one angry whisper heard by this correspondent.

These elections 8212; the first Indian poll I have covered 8212; appear to be a rather rude shock for the elites that govern the country. So they should be. In the three states I visited 8212; Bihar, Uttar Pradesh and Andhra Pradesh 8212; the rural folk had been left behind as metropoles marched ahead.

Outside of the urban centres, India does not shine. The last government made much of its economic reforms but compared to other countries and earlier administrations they did not amount to much. Even worse, village interests appear to surface only at election time 8212; and that too only to be manipulated. The finger of blame cannot be pointed at any one party: all stand accused.

Given the size and complex texture of the electorate, it is hard to generalise. But many pundits did. All those predictions of the BJP forming a majority on its own have melted away. There was no good reason to give the NDA such a mandate. In realising this, the masses have strengthened democracy.

But voters have also undermined it in places like Bihar, where people turn out for candidates awaiting trial for murder and kidnapping. Yet Biharis followed some sort of logic: 8216;8216;Strong men were needed to make life better in Bihar because there were so many bad people around.8217;8217;

A businessman from Delhi in Patna told me of gangs of thugs who controlled the price of key commodities used for road building. Little wonder the last sizeable private investment was seven years ago. On that basis the state appears to be headed for a kleptocracy.

Leadership remains in short supply in the India. By far the most charismatic campaigner I travelled with was a person not even standing for election: Priyanka Gandhi Vadra. Both she and her brother Rahul represent the best and worst of India8217;s democracy.

With half the population under 35, it is odd that the country relies on MPs whose average age is 56. Rahul, and others such as Suresh Prabhu, represent a hope that a younger generation will usher in a new era in politics. However no decent leaders will emerge if the barriers of entry to politics are such that having a name is more important that being genuinely talented.

For all this, Indian democracy remains one of the wonders of the world. Few other developing countries have dared to trust in their people as much as the Indian state has. But for democracy to last institutions are required which can work free from political interference.

In this regard politicians have sought over the years to mould and bend the state to their needs 8212; not the people8217;s. Only the Supreme Court and the Election Commission seem to have the teeth and stomach for the fight. Perhaps the day will come again when the voters do too.

PREDICTION: NDA to get 280 seats

In the end, it8217;s all about that little guy

Ray Marcelo

As professional outsiders explaining India to an international audience, foreign correspondents have the luxury to take two steps back and view the big picture. So amid the daily flow of events, we must search for trends that explain what can be a very complicated country, while avoiding the temptation to make generalisations or offer thoughtless prophecies.

India8217;s election campaign, however, is fraught with such temptations. When women are crushed to death in a stampede for saris, and when party workers exchange gunfire around polling booths, it is tempting to despair about the freedoms of India8217;s democracy.

Yet India8217;s closer-than-expected contest has reinforced the people power that gives democracy a good name. Foreigners might moan about the base motivations of voting along caste, communal and regional lines, but it is resulting in one of the world8217;s most plural representative governments.

The challenge, then, is not just to explain India, but to understand it.

Where does one start? One of the trade8217;s worst-kept secrets is the daily routine of combing through stacks of newspapers, while keeping an eye on news channels such as NDTV. Regular visits to Delhi8217;s excellent bookshops also help to yield chunks of raw material.

This search for understanding means that India is rarely 8216;8216;scoop8217;8217; territory. At the FT we8217;re encouraged to see ourselves less as foreign reporters and more as local reporters writing for a global audience.

For me, at least one part of this is easy: I sound foreign but look local. I have Filipino ancestry but come from Australia, and work for a British newspaper although the FT has more readers outside the UK these days. This combination has led to some curious exchanges.

To many Indians, I could be from the Northeast. When I meet contacts face to face, responses range from warm curiosity to palpable disappointment that I am not the white Australian they assumed they had been speaking to over the phone.

8216;8216;Where are you from?8217;8217; is a typical question. When I answer, 8216;8216;Australia8217;8217;, many say, 8216;8216;No, but you look like you are from Japan or China or Nepal etc.8217;8217; It gets funnier every week. While travelling in Mainpuri in Uttar Pradesh, a Samajwadi voter asked my translator: 8216;8216;Is he from Kumaon?8217;8217;

There are benefits to looking local. I can mingle among crowds anonymously 8212; unlike my wife, whose blonde hair attracts attention. It has become a running joke that when I drive while she is in the passenger seat, I instantly become her Nepali driver 8212; who cannot speak Hindi.

These observations reflect the different treatment people in India give to foreigners and to each other. This discrimination often makes good sense: foreigners are likely to pay more and be less demanding for all sorts of goods and services.

But in politics, do India8217;s politicians treat their voters with as much discernment? I have followed several campaigns during these polls, and each yatra, whether by foot or by Toyota Qualis, looks similar in the passive expressions among the people.

For many, it is the first time that they have seen their local MP since the last election. No wonder Indian voters wisely throw out underperforming MPs in 8216;8216;anti-incumbency8217;8217; reactions.

Democracy, as H.L. Mencken observed, may be about the common people knowing what they want and deserving to get it good and hard. But my experience during this campaign is that Indian voters understand exactly what is at stake.

So when they were told that the country was 8216;8216;shining8217;8217; when their own lives were evidently not, they used their power to set the record straight. Which is why, whoever wins the election 8212; and I am tipping a slim NDA majority 8212; India8217;s politicians should never forget the voter.

PREDICTION: A slim NDA majority

Interest rates? Try 60 per cent

Yukifumi Takeuchi

I am reminded of Japan8217;s high-growth period as I observe the general election in an India that enjoys an annual economic growth of around eight per cent. In the late 1950s and through the 1960s, Japan too enjoyed high annual growth, solidifying its position as one of the world8217;s economic powers. An optimistic mood prevailed that the 8216;8216;postwar period8217;8217; was over and that Japan had re-emerged on the world scene.

But something was overlooked during the period: Japan8217;s agricultural policies.

At that time, in its race towards industrialisation, Japan injected much of its workforce from the agricultural villages into zones of industry. It was not long before Japan fell into the trap of unequal development. The non-urban areas, where only the elderly remained, lost their vitality.

Now, only six per cent of Japan8217;s workforce is involved in agriculture, which produces only two per cent of GDP. Japan8217;s sericulture sector, was once the primary source of foreign currency revenue, has virtually disappeared.

Japan8217;s silkworm and its technologies were transferred to Karnataka and surrounding areas in southern India about a decade ago. The recent good news for Japan8217;s sericulture industry is that the thread is now utilised in Indian saris.

I visited Karnataka during this election. I went to an agricultural village in Mandya district, west of India8217;s biggest IT hub, Bangalore. In the 12-month period from April 2003, 700 farmers have committed suicide in the state. About 190 of these deaths were triggered by drought and a consequent debt trap.

The state government paid the bereaved families condolence money of Rs 100,000. A certain 45-year-old farmer committed suicide last September because he was unable to repay the Rs 80,000 he had borrowed from a moneylender five years earlier. He had borrowed it at an annual interest rate of 60 per cent.

All the responsibility cannot be lumped on the government. However, there are many measures the government could put in place 8212; irrigation facilities, low-interest loans by public institutions, micro-project systems that would empower women, fixed subsidies for farmers to deal with poor harvests, training that would include both agricultural technology and funding acquisition knowhow.

Another point that should not be overlooked is the global market opening in line with WTO agreements. There can be no denying that the liberalisation of agricultural imports will have a direct impact on farming households. Debate on how to reinforce Indian agriculture is necessary amid the ongoing rough waves of liberalisation.

India has achieved food self-sufficiency over a long period. If there is a rapid shift away from agriculture, India8217;s self-sufficiency in terms of food supply will be destabilised again.

India8217;s two large politcal parties have publicly committed themselves 8216;8216;to place emphasis on agriculture8217;8217;. There is the view that the BJP and NDA will win the national election, while the Congress will retain power in Karnataka.

However, I can8217;t forget comments I heard from farmers in Mandya: 8216;8216;All their agricultural policies are similar. While campaigning for the elections, they all say the same thing 8230; You can8217;t trust any of them.8217;8217;

PREDICTION: There is a view that the NDA will win

Two Indias at checkpoint Chapra

David Rohde

At first glance, the polling station in Bihar8217;s Chapra constituency on April 26 seemed to embody the new India.

As five paramilitary police stood guard, four election officials carefully screened dozens of impoverished, lower caste men and women as they patiently waited to vote in the village of Maujempur. Inside a classroom, loud beeps could be heard coming from the device that seemed to symbolise India8217;s surging economy, vigorous democracy and growing aspirations: the Electronic Voting Machine.

But over the next 30 minutes, the old India derailed the new.

In what appeared to be a carefully coordinated series of events, two small bombs exploded outside the polling station, hurting no one but sending voters scurrying. The brother-in-law of Laloo Prasad Yadav, Subhash Yadav, drove into the village, blamed the BJP for the bombs and accused the policemen of having secret orders to block lower caste villagers from voting.

At one point, Yadav asked the commanding police officer. 8216;8216;Do you know who I am?8217;8217; The officer did not answer.

After Yadav departed, his supporters seized control of the voting booth as the policemen stood by, seemingly intimidated. Yadav8217;s political hooligans stood in front of the voting machine, brazenly pushing the button for the RJD over and over again. In some cases, they took hold of women8217;s hands as they voted and pressed their index fingers on the button for Yadav8217;s party.

In nearby villages, there was evidence of foul play by the BJP. In one, an election official told a confused voter to push the second button, the one that casts a vote for the BJP. In another, several small bombs exploded outside a polling booth located behind a mosque.

At the end of the day, turnout at the apparently BJP dominated booth was 62 per cent. The turnout in the polling booth behind the mosque was 38 per cent.

Bihar obviously represents an extreme in India. Little to no booth capturing was reported in most of the country, particularly the new India, the booming, highly developed areas of Bangalore, Hyderabad and other major cities that Indians are justifiably proud of.

But the events of that day, as well as other experiences covering this year8217;s national election, suggested that India, always a land of extremes, may be growing even more polarised.

In conversations in Mumbai and Kolkata, young Indians who are part of the country8217;s booming economy expressed little interest in politics, were generally dismissive of older politicians and talked about the private sector, not the state, rapidly developing India and turning it into an economic superpower.

Asked where India would be in 50 years, Huafrid Bhathena, a 24-year-old product manager at Reliance8217;s Knowledge City in Mumbai, said: 8216;8216;developed much ahead of these other countries8217;8217;, with 8216;8216;other countries trying to copy our culture8217;8217;.

But poor and lower caste young people from rural Bihar, Mumbai8217;s Dharavi slum and West Bengal8217;s remote border areas expressed an entirely different world view. They said they generally trusted older politicians more, expected the government to lead the country8217;s development and were less optimistic about the country8217;s future.

8216;8216;The private sector isn8217;t helping anything,8217;8217; said Avijait Paik, a 19-year-old from Bangaon, West Bengal, who hopes to become a soldier. 8216;8216;There was a scarcity of water supply. The government has helped with that.8217;8217;

Exit polls suggest the divide spans the Indian electorate. Discontent with uneven development and comparatively paltry job growth in states like Andhra Pradesh appears set to oust leaders like N. Chandrababu Naidu from office. Atal Behari Vajpayee8217;s NDA may be able to form a government but it appears unlikely that he will be able to claim a sweeping election mandate.

Whoever wins the contest, the question that the 2004 election appears to pose to the country8217;s leadership is whether the new India will try to take the old India of booth capturing, poverty and despondency along with it.

The lesson of this election may prove to be that anyone who ignores the old India, does so at their political peril.

PREDICTION: NDA may win but will not sweep

Exit poll, starring role

Waiel Awwad

All predictors are liars even if they are telling the truth.

I don8217;t know how many people believe in this proverb, at least I do. If there is anything exit polls have done, it is increase our work in covering the Indian election 8212; as all indications that the NDA would retain power took a jolt, only to recover after the third phase.

Even Al Arabia8217;s HQ in Dubai seemed to know that the NDA would retain power and hence we had to be innovative in our coverage. Moreover this is the year of elections. More than 80 countries are going to polls in 2004, so the Indian election has to compete for space.

But the fluctuations in the exit polls provided us with the opportunity to cover political rallies and the methods used by parties to woo voters. I am sure many enjoyed the glamour and the Bollywood flavour. Certainly I did.

By the way, I hope Kapil Sibal wins his seat Chandni Chowk so he can provide clean water to have more hygienic pani puri. At one stage, I began to confuse these rallies with marriage parades, especially one on April 22 in Delhi.

Yet the exit polls worked in favour of the NDA, intentionally or otherwise. After all people are apprehensive of a hung house and of a possible midterm election.

I have covered elections in different parts of Asia but nothing has interested me more than the Indian election. Here you can never run short of ideas 8212; religious sentiments, castes factors, paisawalla, the drums, the colourful processions and huge portraits of political leaders.

The election was pivotal in projecting India8217;s image to the Arab world. The three pillars of Indian democracy still hold strong 8212; free voting, jurisdiction and free media, despite hiccups from time to time.

While less than a week is left for the verdict, one can say that the overall picture favours the NDA, though it will not secure more than 262 seats, give or take two. The Congress and its allies should end up with 182, plus or minus two.

The campaign by different political parties changed according to each phase of election. For example:
8226; Phase one: Accusation, punches and counter-punches by the main rivals.
8226; Phase two: Glory, rosy road ahead.
8226; Phase three: Stability, sleep peacefully.
8226; The last phase: We, or else?

The unfortunate part of this election was the provocative and abusive language used by certain leaders. I hope Rahul Gandhi wins so that he can improve the quality of MPs and defend his mother in Parliament in Hindi, even if 40 per cent of Lok Sabha members don8217;t speak the language.

One last point, it is surprising to some that in India, the emerging superpower, elections are still fought on issues of clean water, healthcare and electricity. These should have been provided long ago. The 8216;8216;feel good8217;8217; factor cannot be felt before reaching the basics to all strata of society.

PREDICTION: NDA, 262; Congress and allies, 182. Plus or minus two seats