Great Gambler

Either King Gyanendra could not accurately read the response from India and other democratic countries, or he just decided to put everything he had acquired following the palace tragedy on gamble. He decreed that he would need more or all powers to rid the country of corruption, bad governance, fiscal indiscipline and terrorism. With the Royal Nepal Army RNA by his side, he put all political leaders coming in his way into prison, and declared himself the ruler.

8220;It8217;s a setback for democracy,8221; the international community shouted in one voice. In Nepal, with so much dependence on external help, international opinion matters. Also, the regimes here have a tradition of looking more for external recognition than support from their own people. But February 1, the day King Gyanendra sacked the Sher Bahadur Deuba government, put an overwhelming majority of the Nepalese people and bulk of the international community on one side.

Isolated, the king fell back on the support from China, especially after it agreed to sell arms and ammunitions to RNA to sustain its battle against the Maoist insurgents who want to establish a communist republic in Nepal. The king8217;s options were limited after New Delhi made it clear that only a democratic Nepal would be entitled to the continued supply of arms and ammunition from India . The UK and the US also followed this principle.

This Tuesday, even China said the country was 8220;fairly concerned8221; about the recent changes in the political situation in Nepal and it hoped that all parties concerned could narrow their differences 8220;through dialogue8221;. This leaves the king without his overused 8216;China card8217; against democracy.

The king, however, has already got 18 truck loads of arms and ammunitions from China. Officials said Nepal was soon going to acquire about 25,000 pieces of AK-56 from China, each for US350, much higher than the market price.

Right from the day he took over, he would coerce the government into organising his public felicitations, and his secretariat 8212; almost out of sync with the ground realities 8212; would project the huge assembly of 8216;subjects8217; as those wanting monarchy back in its the pre-1990 avatar.

This orchestrated campaign at home continued for three years with twin missions 8212; villify the political parties which ruled the country for 12 years from 1990 as inefficient and corrupt, and project the king as the real 8216;patron8217; of the 25 million subjects. To the international community, he would play the terrorism card, seeking outside support to fight the insurgents.

It worked for nearly three years from October 2002 to January 2005 as he kept appointing Prime Ministers and removing them at will, but yet giving a semblance of power sharing with the parties. But the king8217;s coup on February 1 exposed his real agenda and ambition. Mass scale arrest of leaders, clamp-down of emergency rule and appropriation of the executive powers made the international community feel betrayed.

India reacted calling off the SAARC summit scheduled for next week. Three months on, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh assured the king during their Jakarta meeting that the arms supply would continue if he restored democracy. On April 29, within hours of his return from Jakarta via Beijing, the king acknowledged Singh as a 8220;statesman8221;and called off the Emergency.

Emergency or not, the king was in no hurry to shed the power that he had assumed. So US Ambassador James Moriarty lambasted the king for having promoted criminals and a culture of extra-judicial persecution of political rivals. He slammed the monarch for failing to establish fiscal discipline, transparency and good-governance 8212; all part of the pledge made during the king8217;s February 1 address to the nation.

King Gyanendra called off his scheduled trip to New York in September to lead the Nepalese delegation to the UN General Assembly after US President George Bush deleted his name along with the head of the states of Zimbabwe, North Korea, Iran and Cuba from his guest list for the customary reception. The emperor8217;s transition to a pariah was almost complete.

At a similar scale, the king is losing his space in the domestic polity. Nepal8217;s constitution terms constitutional monarchy and multi-party democracy as irreversible institutions. But political parties are now lobbying for deleting the first. Their tilt towards a 8220;republic Nepal8221; brought them closer to the Maoist rebels who have raised arms against the state since 1996.

In a give and take spirit, Maoists and the seven political parties which have formed an alliance for democracy, signed a 12-point charter of demands last November with agreements on doing away with 8220;absolute monarchy8221; and electing a constituent assembly to draft a new constitution for promoting multi-party democracy. Alarmed, King Gyanendra charged political parties with having joined the terrorists at the instance of 8220;foreign forces8221; read India.

Maoists declared ceasefire for four months and the daily casualty rate during these four months dropped to less than one against 13 logged previously. But the king willed otherwise. He insisted on elections to the 58 municipal bodies to be held on February 8. Political parties opposing the poll came under a second round of repression.

In the spate of protests that followed on January 17, at least 300 political leaders and activists have been taken into custody. But the king8217;s authority and the traditional respect for him also took a nose-dive. The Maoist threat to kill the candidates 8212; they have already killed one 8212; and government officials on poll duty, has discouraged people. But the king still seems to hope that the polls despite having been boycotted by major political parties would establish his 8220;democratic credentials8221;.

Inflation at almost eight per cent, a trade deficit of 36 billion, a loss of face in the international community, extravagant expenses for the monarch from the state exchequer during the past one year8212;all point fingers towards the king. He has to reach out to the political parties, hand over power to them, and address the Maoist problem in socio-economic, political and administrative terms. If he fails, he will not only discredit himself totally but also contribute to a volatile shift of politics towards a 8220;republic Nepal8221;.

DATELINE NEPAL

June, 8217;01: King Birendra assassinated. Prince Gyanendra crowned
July, 8217;01: Girija Prasad Koirala quits as Prime Minister over Maoist violence. Sher Bahadur Deuba becomes Prime Minister, announces truce with rebels.
Nov, 8217;01: Peace talks fail, rebels launch offensive. Emergency declared.
May, 8217;02: Rebels declare one-month ceasefire, government refuses. Parliament dissolved and fresh polls ordered. Prime Minister Deuba expelled by Nepali Congress party, heads interim government, enforces emergency.
Oct, 8217;02: Prime Minister Deuba seeks to defer polls by a year due to violence. The king sacks him and indefinitely puts off elections due next month. Lokendra Bahadur Chand appointed Prime Minister.
January, 8217;03: Rebels, government declare ceasefire.
May, 8217;03: Chand quits as Prime Minister.
June, 8217;03: The king appoints Surya Bahadur Thapa as Prime Minister.
Aug, 8217;03: Rebels end seven-month truce
May, 8217;04: SB Thapa resigns as the Prime Minister.
June, 8217;04: King reappoints Sher Bahadur Deuba as the Prime Minister.
Aug, 8217;04: Rebels stage week-long blockade of Kathmandu.
Feb, 8217;05: The king dismisses Deuba government, declares emergency and assumes direct power
April, 8217;05: The king lifts emergency, announces municipal poll in Feb, 2006 and general elections by April, 2007
July, 8217;05: Former Prime Minister Deuba sentenced to two years in jail for corruption.
Sept, 8217;05: Maoist Rebels announce a three-month, later extended to four-month, unilateral ceasefire.
Nov, 8217;05: Rebels and seven main opposition parties agree on a 12-point programme to restore democracy.
Jan, 8217;06: Rrebels end ceasefire, threaten poll candidates and officials. Only 200-odd nominations so far for 4000-plus posts
8 Feb, 06: Scheduled municipal polls