Glacial pace

Of all the issues that have bedevilled India-Pakistan relations, that of Siachen is arguably the most amenable to a solution that is satisfactory for both parties to the dispute. Indeed, a solution was in sight as early as 8217;89 but political and military developments in the years that followed clouded the prospect and the subcontinental neighbours have continued to be engaged in a bizarre stand-off conducted in what is known to be the world8217;s highest battlfield. Now comes a report in a Pakistani newspaper that Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf has assured Prime Minister Manmohan Singh that his troops will not seize the Siachen glacier should Indian troops vacate it 8212; a proposal to which Manmohan Singh has responded positively, according to the report.

The Indian government now needs to go public on the veracity of this information and clarify its own position on the issue. This is important given the fact that in the echo chamber that is the subcontinental media falsehoods or half-truths often get transformed into facts and vice-versa. There is another problem as well that demands attention: how far can India depend upon Musharraf to actually deliver on this assurance? There are two aspects that present themselves. The first is the Pakistan general8217;s own dependability. After all, he has in the past used the Siachen conflict to justify the Kargil incursion. What guarantee does India now have that Pakistan will not renege on any commitment that it may make on not occupying the Siachen glacier 8212; that was captured and held at such tremendous cost in terms of both human lives and funds 8212; once it is vacated? The immense difficulties entailed in recapturing it should peace moves prove abortive is an issue that has long worried the army. Second, even if India were to trust Musharraf on the issue, how dependable is the general8217;s word given the uncertainties that mark his own position as Pakistan8217;s undisputed head?

This then is slippery territory and India should be certain of its footholds as it negotiates its way. If there is indeed any progress on the issue, India should take care only to commit itself to a phased withdrawal of its ground troops so that it can keep the option of protecting its interests 8212; including the use of air power 8212; should there be any movement of Pakistani troops across what has now come to be known as the Actual Ground Position Line in Siachen.