Geography lessons

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and the Afghan President Hamid Karzai have every reason to be happy with the bilateral partnership between their two countries. New Delhi8217;s triumphalism following the first visit by an Indian prime minister to Kabul in nearly three decades must, however, be tempered by a recognition of the potential negative reaction from Islamabad. Pakistan, which shares a long, unregulated border with Afghanistan, has always been uneasy over Indo-Afghan ties. It could therefore be troubled by the new cordiality that has come to mark these ties.

As India and Afghanistan seek to expand their bilateral relationship beyond an economic engagement, they will have to strongly signal that their political and security cooperation is not directed against Pakistan. There is no escaping the fact that what draws New Delhi and Kabul together 8212; the possibility of the Taliban resurfacing 8212; could also alienate them from Islamabad. Under pressure from Washington, Pakistan has agreed to prevent the Taliban from disrupting the crucial elections to the Afghan Parliament next month. But there is nothing to suggest that the Pak army has taken a strategic decision to disinvest in the Taliban.

To be sure, the vision for regional economic integration offered by Singh and Karzai is equally beneficial to Pakistan. Trans-regional gas pipelines and highways connecting the Indian market with Central Asia will bring enduring commercial gains to both Afghanistan and Pakistan. To persuade Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf to end Islamabad8217;s role as spoiler, New Delhi and Kabul will have to come up with an attractive political deal. If Musharraf is prepared to abandon the Taliban for ever, New Delhi and Kabul must promise to accommodate Pakistan8217;s reasonable political interests in Afghanistan. One way of doing this is to promote joint Indo-Pak economic reconstruction projects in Afghanistan. Unless New Delhi and Kabul respect the logic of political geography, their vision for regional cooperation may remain unfulfilled. If Pakistan continues to dream of an exclusive sphere of influence in Afghanistan, and shuns the Singh-Karzai vision for regional cooperation, there will be neither peace nor prosperity in this region.