Gentlemen146;s agreement

The recently concluded meeting of the foreign ministers of India and Pakistan went along expected lines. It signalled that the two countries intended to continue the composite dialogue with determination. The two ministers agreed to a series of specific steps, each one modest in itself. But their cumulative effect is the continuation of 8220;the serious and sustained dialogue8221; in order to 8220;implement the Simla Agreement in letter and spirit8221;. This does not imply that Pakistan gives up the centrality of Kashmir since the question of a final settlement of Kashmir is very much a part of the 8217;72 Simla Agreement. More important, the Simla Agreement was constructed with three components: normalisation and strengthening of economic-trade relations; cultural contacts and peace and security between the two countries.

But what everyone will be looking for in the current process is progress on road/rail links 8212; both in terms of re-opening the Munnabao-Khokhrapar rail link and the Srinagar-Muzaffarabad bus service. The potential of relaxation of visa rules, with or without innovations, cannot be fully realised without expanding the means and modes of travel across the border. This is even more important for ordinary people. Progress in this field, therefore, becomes the litmus test for the sincerity and seriousness of the two sides in implementing what they are promising under the composite dialogue process. As regards trade and economic relations, the brevity of the joint statement on such issues might lead the pessimists to claim little progress on an issue like the overland gas pipeline, for instance. But the fact that this particular issue has been raised to the level of a ministerial meeting holds promise of its resolution.

Meanwhile progress on other areas is likely to provide the momentum necessary for success. The promise of such progress is now in-built into the dialogue process as it moves into the next phase. The Kashmir issue continues to remain central in Pakistan8217;s scheme of things, although its intensity may be somewhat on the decline. For example, the formulations in the joint statement make the Pakistani proposal for a 8220;special representative8221; on Kashmir unnecessary, if not superfluous. A lot more work would have to be done before we can get even close to the real issues necessary to settle the complexities of the Jammu and Kashmir issue, as indeed the US secretary of state recently conceded. Regular high level meetings becoming the norm without necessarily becoming media events would be an indication that India and Pakistan are getting closer to such a situation. Opportunities for such meetings are increasing in the coming months. They must be exploited to the fullest.