General146;s future in Army146;s hands

What the military thinks about the political logjam, and what it decides to do, will be defining factor for Musharraf

Speculation has been rife in political circles recently that Pakistan8217;s President, General Pervez Musharraf, may not survive his wrangle with the chief justice and hold on to power, but a great silence emanates from the one place that may count the most: the barracks and the mess halls of the armed forces, the other great part of Pakistan8217;s ruling equation.

What the army thinks about the political logjam, and what it decides to do in the event of continuing stalemate, instability or violence, will be the defining factor in Musharraf8217;s future, most commentators agree. If and when the army feels it is being damaged by its association with Musharraf, and his insistence on retaining the dual posts of president and chief of army staff, they will act to safeguard the reputation of the army.

Historians and columnists have been outlining the precedents, recalling how Pakistan8217;s three previous military rulers exited from power. None of the departures came in happy circumstances, and none bode well for Musharraf. The longest ruling general, Mohammad Zia ul-Haq, who seized power in 1977, died in 1988 in a plane crash, the cause of which still remains a mystery. The strongest possibility is that the plane was brought down using a bomb or even, according to one theory, by knockout gas hidden inside crates of mangoes 8212; a gift that was put on board the presidential plane at the last minute. This being the mango season, the old story has gained a lot of currency lately. 8220;He either goes the mango-crate way or he goes gracefully,8221; as one military officer said.

Pakistan8217;s other two military dictators were forced out by fellow officers. Gen. Mohammad Ayub Khan, who ruled from 1958 to 1969, was isolated, unpopular and sick by the end, and after months of popular unrest was replaced by another military man, Gen. Yahya Khan. Yahya Khan promised a return to democracy and held probably the fairest elections Pakistan has ever seen. But after war and the break-up of Pakistan in 1971, when Bangladesh gained independence, his fellow officers forced him to resign and hand over rule of what remained of Pakistan to the civilian political leader, Zulfikar Ali Bhutto.

Musharraf has already survived several attempts on his life, and with suicide bombing on the rise, and al-Qaeda and the Taliban in the hills, the possibility of assassination remains. But the general is showing no readiness to give up either of his posts.

Well aware of the importance of backing within the army, Musharraf called a meeting of his corps commanders and principal military staff, apparently to ensure their support. The military public relations service issued an unusually long news release in that vein. Issuing such a statement is unusual and brings to mind the vote of confidence that often presages the end for a Cabinet officer or, in sports, a manager or coach. In effect, several former members of the army said, such assurances only underscore the general8217;s insecurity.

The discontent with Musharraf is seeping into the lower ranks as well. But who will tell the general to go? After nearly eight years in power, Musharraf has picked all the top military and intelligence leaders. He will remain secure as long as he retains the support of four or five of the nine corps commanders.

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Military officers, especially senior ones coming up for promotion or retirement, will not speak out of line to the chief of army staff, the officer said. The officer said he could sense growing dissatisfaction among fellow officers, but discipline was such that no one was voicing it. 8220;They don8217;t say it,8221; he said. 8220;From their eyes you can see it.8221;

Asked if the corps commanders might tell the general he had to go, he answered, 8220;We may be coming to that stage.8221;