From Oslo, with warmth

A nobel is such an extraordinary prize that it is almost a challenge. The challenge is to remember the work that is...

A nobel is such an extraordinary prize that it is almost a challenge. The challenge is to remember the work that is being cited and the quiet and many claimants to the honour. This Nobel Peace Prize is an expression of appreciation for the entire scientific community that contributed to the work of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC. This also goes to the governments that supported the scientists and facilitated their work.

I merely speak as a spokesperson for the scientific and intellectual effort that has been put into this work. The honour that has come from the Nobel committee in Oslo today has enhanced our commitment to the cause.

The IPCC report has a policy implication to it. Its structure ensures that governments become stakeholders in the output and hence carry enormous strength in its implementation. The Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC 8212; 8216;Climate Change 20078217; 8212; is a major advance over what we had earlier known about climate change. It marks a substantial increase in knowledge of the science related to climate change. The strength of the Fourth Assessment Report is apart from the physical scientific basis of climate change; it has much more information assessment of impacts across the globe.

Clearly, scientific research and knowledge have progressed substantially in this area to make it possible for the authors of IPCC reports to provide a more comprehensive scientific support for the findings of the previous reports. This makes it possible for policy makers to pinpoint what needs to be done.

For example, we know almost beyond doubt that we, the human race, have substantially altered the earth8217;s atmosphere. In 2005 the concentration of carbon dioxide exceeded the natural range that has existed over 650,000 years. Eleven of the warmest years since instrumental records have been kept occurred during the last 12 years.

In the 20th century the increase in average temperature was 0.74 degrees centigrade; sea level increased by 17 cm; and a large part of the northern hemisphere snow cover vanished. Particularly worrisome is the reduction in the mass balance of the glaciers, and this has serious implications for the availability of water: 500 million people in South Asia and 250 million people in China are likely to be affected as a result.

These assessments have implications on policy. Due to global warming, there would be less water available in several parts of the world and a number of crops that the human race is dependent on are likely to see declines in yield and productivity.

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The other area in which new clarity has emerged is the mitigation policy. There is now evidence that the cost of mitigation is very low across the world 8212; in some sense it demolishes the misgivings people have voiced in the past. The critics have said that there was a lot of negative cost to mitigation 8212; loss of jobs, fall in economic output. In fact, it is now showing there is actually increase in economic output.

According to estimates, the cost of stabilisation would not be very high. At the lower end of stabilisation options the cost in 2030 would not exceed 3 per cent of gross domestic product, which amounts to 0.12 per cent of gross domestic product on an annual basis. With new technologies, new methods and changes in behaviour, the costs would actually go down. In all, there is a fairly robust assessment of climate change available now.

Next month, we will come out with a synthesis report on climate change that will embody the key findings of our three reports released earlier this year. The synthesis document would provide the most policy-relevant scientific overview of the current understanding of climate change. It will have an influence on the Conference of Parties COP in Bali. In fact, we requested that the Bali meeting be shifted by four weeks, so that the delegates may have the benefit of the synthesis report. Once this is out, we would have completed our work of the Fourth Assessment Report.

It is now important that messages contained in the series of reports are effectively disseminated among governments and people. That is a challenge that I am willing to address after this part of my work gets over. I would like to launch a major outreach programme, so that the work of the IPCC reaches a large cross-section of people.

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As Al Gore said to me today, 8220;we have to work in tandem on climate change8221;. He has got capabilities and skills to carry the message. We hope to utlilise this synergy in the months to come. Overall, I am optimistic about the future of the world 8212; that is what keeps me going.

The events in the last few months have given me cause for optimism. There is evidence of leaders and the public getting sensitised to climate change. And this is what will lead to action that will address the problem that faces humanity today. I hope that the global community at large finds the work of the IPCC a valuable source of information and knowledge in an area that critically affects the future of this planet and all forms of life that exist on it.

The writer is chairperson of the IPCC, which shared this year8217;s Nobel Peace Prize with Al Gore