Five Pointer

During his first term, Bush decided to renew civilian nuclear contacts with India. In the past few months he has gone a step further by signalling the intent to revive nuclear cooperation with India. While Delhi hopes Bush8217;s talk will be converted into action, there is considerable bureaucratic resistance in Washington to a significant departure in US nuclear policy towards India.

As the nuclear question emerges as the litmus test of the proposed new relationship between Delhi and Washington, expectations are there will be some progress. Neither side is willing to reveal where exactly it might be.

Getting some space
MUCH like in the nuclear sector, the US was an enthusiastic supporter of India8217;s civilian space programme in the 1960s and early 1970s. Many of India8217;s early experiments in space, whether in developing satellites or space launch vehicles, saw the US more than forthcoming.

But as non-proliferation concerns grew in Washington since the mid-1970s, India8217;s space programme became a target for US sanctions. And as the Indian missile programme came into its own in the 1980s and 1990s, the US began to impose even tighter controls on export of any items for India8217;s civilian space programme.

Since the launch of the 8216;8216;Next Steps in Strategic Partnership8217;8217; by the Bush administration and the Vajpayee government in January 2004, there has been some relief for the Indian space establishment, which can now acquire components and sub-systems from the US.

New Delhi and Washington are now looking at a more ambitious framework for expanding space commerce between the two nations. Negotiations are reportedly on to allow the Indian space establishment and American corporations to jointly develop and market satellites for the world market.

India is also hoping the US will permit nations to launch satellites with American components on Indian rockets like PSLV and GSLV. There is some prospect of US participation in the first Indian unmanned mission to the moon 8212; Chandrayaan 1.

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In January 1979, Deng went to Washington as leader of a second-rung power. The US began an engagement of China to balance the Soviet Union. Manmohan8217;s July 2005 visit is comparable. Only this time Washington is seeking to balance not Moscow but Beijing

Security counselling
THE Bush administration has, like China and Russia, come out in the open against an early vote on the framework resolution being circulated by the Group of Four nations 8212; India, Japan, Germany and Brazil 8212; on UN Security Council expansion. While American opposition has muddied the prospect of an early decision on UNSC expansion, India is not losing heart. It also appears to have had prior indication of American intent to oppose the G-4 resolution.

New Delhi is viewing the US opposition to the G-4 resolution and its attitude to India as a candidate for permanent membership of the UNSC as two separate issues. The US says it will support Japan and 8216;8216;one or two other countries8217;8217; for future permanent membership of the UNSC. The criteria identified by the US 8212; such as size, population and participation in international peacekeeping 8212; fit India like a shot.

As the debate on Security Council expansion and UN reform enters a critical phase next week, there is some hope that Bush might advance a little the current American position on supporting India8217;s candidature. Meanwhile expect the script on UNSC reform to alter by the hour.

Somewhat counter-intuitively, the American position on how to go about reforming the UN might become clearer only after the vote on the G-4 resolution takes place.

But we8217;re all democrats
AS the Bush administration makes promotion of democracy a key theme of its second-term foreign policy, it is keen to enlist India8217;s support. Through the Cold War, the world8217;s most powerful democracy and the largest were ranged against each other. The convergence of political systems had little impact on foreign policies.

Since the end of the Cold War, there have been attempts to find ways to bring their core national values to matter in bilateral cooperation. The Clinton administration launched the 8216;8216;Community of Democracies Initiative8217;8217; in 2000. India participated in that project, which did not go too far. The Bush administration believes spreading democracy is the longterm answer to global terrorism.

Signalling a careful Indian decision to support the American proposal to set up a 8216;8216;Global Democracy Fund8217;8217; at the United Nations, Foreign Secretary Shyam Saran told the press this past week, 8216;8216;With our democratic traditions, we can help a lot of countries with putting the nuts and bolts of democracy in place.8217;8217;

New Delhi, like Washington, will naturally be quite deliberative when it comes to choosing between promotion of democracy and other national interests.

Let8217;s talk business
THE July 18 launch in Washington of an Indo-US forum of corporate CEOs will mark renewed attempts by India to attract American investment and better market India in the US. There will be 10 members from each country and Ratan Tata will head the Indian side.

The CEO forum will also focus on joint development of products in areas ranging from pharmaceuticals to defence. There will be an agriculture initiative that will include the facilitation of a second Green Revolution. There will also be special focus on collaboration in such areas as nanotech and biotech.

On its part, India has made a special effort to sort out the problem of Enron before Singh8217;s visit. By opting for Boeing aircraft for Air-India, New Delhi also hopes to reduce the current imbalance in bilateral trade in favour of India.

Manmohan Singh would want to signal Indo-US trade need not remain 8216;8216;flat as a chapati8217;8217;. If the US loosens controls on hi-tech trade and nuclear cooperation, there could be significant expansion of American exports to India.

Getting one or two big investment deals in the US and announcement of a policy decision to let FDI into the retail sector could sweeten the mood of Singh8217;s interaction with the American business community.