Faring well, Uma sets off alarm bells

But the party8217;s central leaders feel that it was a creditable performance considering that the Shivraj Singh Chouhan government put the entire state machinery at work to ensure BJP candidate Kapoorchand Ghuvra8217;s victory. 8220;Despite the role of the state administration, we managed to just scrape through, which is a cause for worry,8221; a party insider said.

As for Vidisha Lok Sabha seat, there was little doubt that the BJP would win the seat, especially after Chouhan rejected the candidature of Varun Gandhi on grounds that it would be difficult for the local party machinery to ensure the victory of an 8220;outsider.8221;

Chouhan, who had won Vidisha in five consecutive polls, put his own prestige on the line to make sure that his hand-picked candidate Rajpal Singh managed a comfortable passage to the Lok Sabha.

Yet, even here, the margin of the BJP8217;s victory has come down massively. In 2004, Chouhan had secured 65.14 of the popular vote, trouncing his nearest Congress rival who got 25.48. This time, the BJP candidate secured 2.58 lakh votes or 41.8. The Congress candidate increased his vote share marginally to 27.16 1.73 lakh votes, but the real damage was done by BJS candidate Raghunandan Sharma who polled 21.9 1.37 lakh votes.

In view of these numbers, BJP central leaders are hoping for one of two things. The first view is Bharati8217;s failure to win the seats will serve as a 8220;severe psychological blow8221; and reduce the momentum her party had gained in recent months. 8220;If she had won Bara Malhera, there was a chance of large-scale desertion from the BJP to her party, but her defeat has halted this possibility,8221; a BJP leader said, adding that a lot depended on how Bharati took the 8220;blow8221;.

Early indications are that far from getting disheartened, Uma8217;s bitterness and resolve to fight back has only increased. She is campaigning in Bhagalpur for the BJS-backed Independent candidate Pradeep Joshi only to spoil the chances of BJP8217;s Shahnawaz Hussain and plans to hold a big dharna at Bhopal to protest against the FIR filed against her in Bara Malhera 8212; the beginning of a renewed campaign against Chouhan.

The second tactic being considered by sections of the BJP central leadership is Uma8217;s return to the party fold. They feel that even if the BJS fails to emerge as an alternative to the BJP, it can manage to get enough votes to ensure a Congress victory in the 2008 polls. 8220;The difference between the BJP and Congress vote share is usually around two per cent. But if Uma manages to poll even a few thousand votes and get us defeated in 25-30 seats, it could spell big trouble for us,8221; a party insider admitted.

That is why neutralising the Uma effect by getting her back in the BJP is being considered as a long-term option. Uma Bharati, this section argues, has not said anything against BJP central leaders and targeted only the Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister during her recent speeches. She has always had good ties with Rajnath Singh and once he consolidates his position as party chief after getting elected for a full three-year term, a rapprochement could be attempted.

Uma8217;s camp dismisses the possibility, pointing out that the real lesson of the bypolls was the Congress8217;s continuing stagnation despite the anti-incumbency factor. 8220;The crux of the matter is who will encash the anti-incumbency factor in 2008 8212; Congress or Uma. And it all depends on Uma8217;s stamina to keep up the battle for the next two years,8221; a source close to her said, admitting that while the dress rehearsal had not been a success, the curtains were yet to come down on Uma8217;s future as a rebel, spoiler or an alternative.