Democracy146;s sinking ship

But the Maoists leaving the government means much more than a coalition partner leaving the government. It raises a big question mark on the success of the peace process which is so vital for Nepal8217;s survival and growth. Besides, the election to the constituent assembly scheduled on November 22 has almost become impossible. That will leave the entire political process as well as the government without legitimacy and credibility in the eyes of the people as well as the international community.

A statement issued by the European Union expressing disappointment with the Maoists8217; withdrawal from the government and their decision to disrupt elections makes it amply clear how crucial the November elections are. 8220;These elections are about securing peace and democracy in Nepal. They are in fulfillment of promises made to the Nepalese people that they will be able to decide their own future through a fully representative and inclusive Constituent Assembly and begin building a lasting peace and a prosperous future8221;.

Although the Maoists are still in the US terrorist list, the rest of the world has encouraged them to be part of Nepal8217;s democratic process. But India8217;s foreign secretary, Shiv Shankar Menon, has conveyed to the Maoists in no uncertain terms when he was in Kathmandu recently that India will not be able to treat them like other parties if they gave up the peace process.

The Maoists have said they will continue to remain part of the peace process even if they quit the government. But that looks easier said than done. Sabotaging elections is not the way to take the peace process further. There are different theories as to why the Maoists pulled out of government. The much talked about theory is that they were not very confident about the poll outcome. Two, they never got their cadres, whose world view is clearly anti-US and anti-India, to readjust to the peace process. Especially after India played the role of architect and mediator of the Delhi Agreement in

November 2005 to bring Nepal8217;s seven pro-democracy parties and the Maoists together to work together on a common agenda of peace, democracy and economic prosperity, a section of the Maoists always suspected a sell-out to the South. A powerful axis of three leaders, Mohan Vaidya,

C.P. Gajurel and Ram Bahadur Thapa aka Badal, represent a majority view in the party that compromise with 8216;feudal elements8217; is the surest way to abort a 8216;revolution8217;. Their pressure worked. Withdrawal from the government was a clear indicator. Prachanda and Baburam Bhattarai have become substantially weaker.

Prime Minister Koirala still wants the Maoists back in the government fold. But going for a republic of Nepal immediately, as the Maoists want, is something Koirala does not feel comfortable with. After all, he heads the 60-year old Nepali Congress which has all along advocated for constitutional monarchy and democracy. No political party in Nepal feels comfortable supporting the king now, but blindly following Maoists is as difficult and suicidal. Maoists, despite their support base on the decline, know this dilemma. They are trying to assert the republican agenda now without waiting for the CA election. But there is a major flaw in their approach. They are in a hurry to receive a 8216;republic gift8217; from G.P. Koirala and some leaders, but do not have much faith that Nepal8217;s voters will support their political agenda.