Death on the road

Since the car first killed, at Crystal Palace, London, in 1898 the victim a pedestrian, motor vehicles have claimed 30 million lives in accidents alone. By 1990 traffic accidents had become the ninth-greatest cause of death worldwide, killing 500,000 people a year and injuring 15 million, most in developing countries such as India. That8217;s a death every minute of the day and night, and an injury every two seconds. Worldwide, road accidents are nowthe single biggest cause of death of men aged 15 to 44.

Yet the carnage has only just begun. By 2020, the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies announces in its 1998 World Disasters Report, traffic accidents will take third place in the world league for death and disability, ahead of respiratory infections a lot exacerbated by traffic pollution, tuberculosis, war and HIV. Most of those killed will be the most vulnerable people from the world8217;s poorest countries.

Road accidents in the developed world have been declining for 30 years. Between 1965 and 1994 the number of vehicles on Britain8217;s roads doubled, but accidents more than halved, the result of public education, drink-driving laws, safer road design, vehicle safety regulations and the abandonment of the most dangerous roads by children, cyclists and pedestrians. Road deaths in most developed countries are down to under five per 10,000 registered vehicles a year, and just two in Japan and Australia.

It8217;s a differentstory in the developing world: India scores 40 deaths a year per 10,000 vehicles, Bangladesh 77, Ghana 111 and Ethiopia 192. Despite far more vehicles, Europe and North America combined have under half the deaths of Asia, Africa and South America. World traffic volumes are forecast to double between 1990 and 2020 to some 50 billion passenger kilometres, then double again by 2050, with the biggest increases in developing countries. The number of traffic accidents in there is set to soar.

It is impossible to assess the global sum of misery. But the Red Cross has calculated the economic cost in terms of lost years of work an average of 25 years per fatality, medical expenses and property damage, to arrive at 53 billion a year in developing countries 8212; equivalent to the entire international aid they receive. The Red Cross is doing its bit to heal the wounds. Colombia is known as one of the world8217;s most dangerous countries, yet 70 per cent of those helped by the Colombian Red Cross in Bogota last year 8211;disaster relief excepted 8212; were victims of traffic accidents, many involving drunk drivers.

The Red Cross is developing similar road-accident services in south Asia, including India, Sri Lanka, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Nepal. And it is desperately combating the regional shortage of blood for transfusion, building up a network of volunteer donors, testing the blood for a host of viruses, and providing it free of charge. But as Geoffrey Dennis, head of the South Asia delegation says, the Red Cross cannot merely help road accident victims without addressing the causes. Over recent years Britain has spent about 1.6 billion a year on road safety, which the Red Cross describes as a 8220;cost-effective investment with a high rate of return8221;.Now, it argues, developing countries too should commit serious resources to preventing accidents. Such spending, the Red Cross says, should focus on measures such as brighter street lights, safer junction designs, traffic calming and the segregation of fast and slow-movingvehicles. Public education is important, too. The Red Cross8217;s advice is eminently sensible, but one vital element is missing from its report. Traffic volumes and vehicle numbers may quadruple by 2050. It appears likely because transport policies in developing countries favour motor vehicles over cyclists and pedestrians.

The Red Cross deserves praise for its emergency services, and for advocating safer road design. No less important, it should encourage governments to choose sustainable modes of transport development that will benefit all citizens. Dennis accepts the criticism. 8220;We are putting a sticking plaster on a running sore. Long term, we need to solve traffic problems in cities all over South Asia 8212; and the world. It won8217;t be easy. It8217;s not a problem we have solved even in the UK.8221;