Dead end in Lanka

The close outcome of a singularly bloody election leaves Sri Lanka almost exactly where it was before. This does not augur well for the country. But for an increase in the vote share of small parties including the radical Janata Vimukti Perumuna, the political status quo before the polls remains essentially unchanged. That does not encourage the hope of early restoration of peace on the island. Neither of the two main parties gets a clear majority and each has suffered a fall in its share of the vote. President Chandrika Kumaratunga8217;s People8217;s Alliance has nosed ahead of its rival, Ranil Wickremsinghe8217;s United National Party, and looks like being able to cobble together a majority from small parties and independents. Two parties which could line-up with the PA are the Eelam People8217;s Democratic Party and the SLMC, both from the north-east. But a PA-led coalition is not as yet a sure thing. A period of uncertainty compounded by repolling in some areas looms ahead during which a resurgence of violence cannotbe ruled out.

The verdict, not dissimilar to the 1994 poll result, increases the prospect of contention and delay in pushing through key economic measures and paralysis on the question of autonomy for the Tamils. The silver lining to these dark clouds, if the PA is able to form the new government, is that Kumaratunga will get a prime minister she can work with. Under the Sri Lankan system, in which an executive president has overriding powers, political gridlock can develop very easily if the president and prime minister come from two different parties and do not learn to 8220;cohabit8221;, a term the French use to describe power-sharing in government. Kumaratunga said quite plainly in the run-up to the elections that she would find it very difficult to work with Wickremsinghe if he became prime minister. Given the rivalries and vastly different political platforms that is understandable.

Whether or not working together turns out to be a constitutional necessity, it is certainly a political necessity whoever forms the government. The leaders of the island8217;s two major parties need to narrow their differences. The starting point for resolving the autonomy issue and for dealing successfully with the LTTE is for the PA and UNP to find a common purpose. Otherwise, ethnic conflict which has gone on for 17 years looks like going on for many more. The election campaign showed the PA and UNP8217;s approaches to the ethnic issue are poles apart. Wickremsinghe favours a ceasefire and negotiations with the LTTE while Kumaratunga wants to continue to prosecute the war in the north and to pass the Constitution bill which she was compelled, because of lack of support, to withdraw from the last Parliament. Without an understanding between the two parties, there cannot be forward movement in the months ahead. The fear of a dead-end is probably why some Sri Lankans are calling for a government of national unity.The country would have done better out of a more decisive electoral result. The hope now is that its politicians will find a way to make the verdict work for peace and stability.