Cutting a fair deal

The US-India nuclear deal is that rare thing, a foreign policy move by the Bush administration that could look strategically smart to future historians. Signed in 2005, the deal sought to bring an end to four decades of hostility and suspicion between the United States and India and, crucially, almost a decade of semi-isolation imposed on India after it shocked the world by testing nuclear weapons in 1998.

The pact built on moves begun by President Bill Clinton, notably his path-breaking visit to India in 2000, the first by a US president in 22 years. But it took a big further stride by offering India access to civil nuclear power technology and, crucially, nuclear fuel, without it having to sign the global agreement accepted by other nuclear fuel importers 8212; the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty NPT.

The deal thus makes a huge exception of India, endorsing its status as a nuclear-weapons state and granting it a more lenient regime of inspections of its nuclear power facilities by the International Atomic Energy Agency than is normal. Why? The answer is China.

Neither the US nor the Indian government wants to say so, but the basic reason to make India an exception and to bring it closer to the United States is the desire to balance the rising power of China in Asia.

Such a balance is in both countries8217; clear interests. Yet until now the three-year-old deal has been held up by India8217;s complicated politics. Prime Minister Singh8217;s government lacks a parliamentary majority and has relied on communist parties8217; votes to govern. Those parties are instinctively anti-American and have threatened to bring down the government if it proceeded with the nuclear deal.

At long last, Singh and his party leader, Sonia Gandhi, have summoned the nerve to dump the communists and get support instead from a small regional group representing low castes and Muslims. The Samajwadi Party is losing ground in its state, Uttar Pradesh, to another low-caste party and needs help. With national elections due by next May, both Singh and the Samajwadi Party felt they had little to lose by working together 8212; and much to gain.

That decision deserves to be rewarded by a strong American effort to persuade the International Atomic Energy Agency and the members of the global 8220;nuclear suppliers group8221; to endorse the deal, and then by a rapid ratification in the final session of Congress this year.

The first of those efforts would be greatly assisted by bipartisan US declarations that the NPT needs revamping and that every effort will be made to reform it in the coming years to bring in new nuclear powers such as India. The second would be assisted by senior members of Congress displaying a more realistic attitude toward India8217;s ties with Iran.

Support for a closer US relationship with India is now bipartisan. But that happy picture is blurred by concern that India is unhelpfully friendly with Iran, wanting to buy its gas and to receive official visits from its Holocaust-denying president.

Using the nuclear deal to try to force India to align with the US policy on Iran would be a big mistake. Thanks to its colonial history, India is fiercely protective of its autonomy; it is never going to sign up for a full Japanese-style alliance with the United States. Trying to force it to toe the US line on Iran, to be 8220;either with us or against us,8221; would be letting the best be the enemy of the good.

Creating energy independence

At a public lecture at the Indian Academy of Sciences, Atomic Energy Commission Chairman Anil Kakodkar stressed the urgency of the nuclear deal

8226;Light Water Reactors LWRs need fuel; the building of the reactors and sourcing their fuel is dependent on ending nuclear isolation

8226;If India does not shift to internationally supported nuclear power, it will face a shortfall of 412 Gigawatts in 2050

8226;LWRs alone do not, in fact, end the problem

8226;However, the Fast Breeder Reactors FBRs that will be rolled out soon will work on spent fuel from LWRs, if available. If LWRs are built and operational soon, FBTs will ensure energy independence by 2050.

8226;This must be done soon: a ten-year delay will ensure that we still have a deficit of 178 Gigawatts in 2050, which will have to be made up by carbon imports.

If India remains isolated from the international nuclear regime, the projected requirement of energy 8211; the top line 8211; will go up to over 1200 Gigawatts. All other sources of energy: the domestic nuclear programme, oil and coal and hydel power, will be insufficient to meet that requirement.

If the nuclear deal is delayed, and India is not part of the international nuclear regime till 2022, when it starts importing LWR materials, then capacity every year will be augmented a little 8211; by an amount equivalent to the top two shades of each year8217;s bar. That still leaves a deficit in 2050.

If India starts importing LWR as fast as possible, and builds FBRs to use spent fuel from LWRs, then the top shade of each year8217;s bars 8211; the energy from FBRs 8211; will rise to meet the 8220;requirement8221; line by 2050.

The full text of Kakodkar8217;s speech and accompanying figures, visit our website