Chimerica

As the US prepares for its political transition, China is happy to see the back of the Bush Administration, which tried to inject a measure of balance of power politics into its Asia policy. For the first time, since the 1970s, America under Bush emphasised on the renewal of its traditional Asian alliances such as with Japan and build a new one with India. Bush was determined to hedge against a rising China.

Beijing is now betting that the Obama Administration will have no option but to discard Bush8217;s geo-political approach and settle for a 8216;China first8217; policy in Asia. As elsewhere in Asia, China prefers Republicans to the Democrats, who tend to be more 8220;protectionist on trade8221; and push harder on human rights issues.

China, however, hopes that the deepening financial crisis and the recognition of the now profound mutual economic interdependence, called 8216;Chimerica8217; by Historian Niall Ferguson, may compel Washington to seek a joint global economic management with China. The imperatives of the so-called 8220;Group of Two8221;, Beijing believes, may prevail over Washington8217;s search for Asian balance.

Dai8217;s list

Speaking at an event in Washington to mark the 30th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations, Dai Bingguo, China8217;s state-councillor and diplomatic trouble shooter, underlined the new opportunities for Sino-US relations and listed some of the 8220;red lines8221; that Washington should not cross. Dai, Beijing8217;s Special Representative for the boundary talks with India, is also involved with the six-party talks on North Korea and conducts strategic dialogue with Washington.

Reviewing the history of bilateral relations, Dai pointed out that 8220;it is important that we correctly understand each other8217;s strategic role. What has happened in the past 30 years proves that instead of weakening American advantages, China8217;s development has advanced US interests.8221;

Looking at the future with the Obama Administration, Dai observed: 8220;The most urgent item on the agenda is to strengthen macro-economic and financial policy coordination and work together to address the international financial crisis. We must oppose all forms of trade protectionism and any attempt to politicise economic and trade issues.8221; For Dai, the key link is to ensure that issues involving each other8217;s core interests are handled well and the strategic underpinning of cooperation be maintained and developed. 8220;Taiwan and Tibet-related issues concern China8217;s core interests. The Chinese people have an unshakable determination to defend our core interests,8221; added Dai.

Dai8217;s message could not have been clearer 8212; China is ready for a new relationship, but the US must lay off on issues that Beijing considers 8220;sensitive8221;.

Asian condominium

Amid a mounting chorus of opinion in Washington in favour of a new Group of Two, there is growing nervousness in Asia at the prospect of a Sino-American condominium in the region. All the Asian countries who were, earlier, urging Bush to seek greater engagement with China, may now find that too close an embrace between Washington and Beijing leaves them in an even greater strategic discomfort. While New Delhi might be gearing itself to argue with the Obama Administration on Kashmir and Pakistan, India8217;s real challenge would lie in coping with some fundamental changes in US policy towards China in the next four years.

India had a brief taste of it when President Bill Clinton travelled to China three weeks after India8217;s nuclear tests in May 1998 and declared the joint commitment with Beijing to roll back nuclear proliferation in the sub-continent. Courtesy Bush, India8217;s nuclear weapons are now off the international table. But the formation of a new G-2 under Obama could prove to be a far harder nut to crack.

The writer is a professor at the S Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Nanyang echnological University, Singapore