Catholics favour, Protestants split over peace deal

Most Catholics, who form the 40 per cent Irish nationalist minority, support the agreement. They see this as their first chance to have a share of power that will lead to closer links with the Irish Republic. Protestants, who want to maintain the 300-year-old union with Britain, are split between those who feel the agreement will bring peace and create institutions to strengthen the union and those who see it as a sell out to the Republicans.

Whether thepeace plan works or fails will depend on the Protestant majority. In the euphoria following the Good Friday Agreement, the feeling was that popular backing for it was guaranteed. But, in the short time since then, the 8220;No8221; campaign, led by Democratic Unionist fire-brand Rev Ian Paisley, has gained strength. Opinion polls continue to show that the referendum will gain majority backing. A Ulster TV commissioned poll found that over 52 per cent of the voters supported the agreement, 20 per cent were opposed to it, and 25 per cent were undecided. But, the crucial question is: By what margin ?

As with all things in Northern Ireland, the sectarian division of the vote share is critical to the success both, of the referendum and of the elections to the assembly which follow in five weeks. This is how it looks inside Ulster: Around 40 per cent of the province8217;s electorate is nationalist SDLP and Sinn Fein and 52 per cent is Unionist Ulster Unionist party, Democratic Unionists, United Unionist party and somesmaller parties, and some 8 per cent vote for the non-sectarian Alliance Party. A majority of Catholics or Nationalists 8212; nearly 75 per cent 8212; support the agreement, with only 4 per cent against and 16 per cent undecided.

Among the Protestants or Unionists just over a third back the agreement, 32 per cent oppose it, and 31 per cent are undecided. If the referendum finds just 50 odd per cent backing it would mean that while a majority of Catholics voted for it 75 per cent of Catholics, around 30 per cent of electorate, only a minority of Unionists did 33 per cent of Unionists, around 18 per cent of electorate. This would bode very ill for the proposed Northern Irish Assembly elections which will be held five weeks after the referendum.

The functioning of the assembly is premised on 60 per cent support from both sides for any decision. If lack of support for the pro-Agreement Ulster Unionists is mirrored in the assembly elections, it would mean that the assembly would be vulnerable to disruptionfrom those Unionists whose political agenda will be fulfilled by the failure of the assembly.