BJP146;s first test

It may be tough for Modi8217;s charisma to hold against the range of anti-BJP forces at work in the first phase.

As Gujarat begins to lock in the electoral verdict on Tuesday, 669 candidates will fight it out at 87 seats in the first phase. While several forces seem to be ranged against the BJP, caste is likely to be a major stumbling block in Kutch, Saurashtra and South Gujarat, that go to polls in the first phase. The one factor working for the party is the charisma of Chief Minister Narendra Modi, backed by a tech-savvy campaign projecting him as a leader towering above everybody else in the state.

The anti-Modi Patidar factor8212;centred on the angst of Keshubhai Patel-led Leuva Patel community8212;poses a serious threat to the BJP in at least 20 Assembly segments of Saurashtra. Led by Gordhan Zadaphia and blessed by Keshubhai and Suresh Mehta, the Sardar Patel Utkarsh Samiti synergised with the Congress to give a difficult time to the BJP by organising huge farmer conventions at Jasdan and Rajkot.

Though the Koli community, with influence in the same number of constituencies in Saurashtra, is split, going against the BJP over the Junagadh rape and murder incident, the Rajputs and Darbars have shown a renewed interest in the party. Add to it the feeling of unease in the farming community due to the monsoon8217;s destructive trail in Saurashtra, and the region represents a million mutinies against the BJP, only loosely countered by Modi8217;s image.

This too came under attack when Congress chief Sonia Gandhi, while launching the party8217;s campaign from Chikhli on December 1, referred to him as 8220;maut ka saudagar8221;. Modi promptly hit back by bringing in the fake encounter of Sohrabuddin Sheikh. Having hitched on to the development bandwagon earlier, it was an about-turn for Modi, which had the Election Commission slapping notices against both.

Tuesday8217;s poll8212;with the closest contests at Rajkot-II, Porbandar, Botad, Bhavnagar South, Surat North, and Chorasi8212;will seal the fate of 10 Cabinet ministers, including Vajubhai Vala Rajkot-II, Narottam Patel Chorasi, I.K. Jadeja Dhrangadhara, Mangubhai Patel Navsari, Saurabh Patel Botad, Chhatrasinh Mori Jambusar, Mulu Bera Bhanvad, Ratilal Sureja Junagadh, Parsottam Solanki Ghogha, and Jasuben Korat Jetpur.

Of these, Saurabh Patel, Vajubhai Vala, and Mangubhai Patel face especially tough contests. As Energy Minister, Saurabh Patel might boast a clean report card, but the rural electorate is angry with him for the electricity board raids in their fields. In C.C. Pithawala, the Congress has found the right combination of caste and pedigree. If Saurabh is an MBA from US, Pithawala is an MBA from London. Vala faces an adverse caste equation owing to the Lohana community8217;s disenchantment with the BJP over giving a ticket to Kanti Amrutiya from Morbi, an accused in the murder of a local Lohana leader. Born Brahmin and married into a Lohana family, Vala8217;s opponent Kashmira Nathwani has the right mix of RSS lineage and caste.

In south Gujarat, Forest Minister Mangubhai Patel is locked in a triangular contest, with rebel BJP leader and former minister Rajnikant Rajwadi fighting on a Bharatiya Janshakti ticket, who is set to cut into Patel8217;s votes.

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Hoping to open an account in Gujarat, the BSP could get notable votes in Abdasa, Mandvi, Bhuj, Babra and Rajula, while the Congress has given four constituencies to NCP and one to CPM. The first phase will also see 54 women candidates: 14 from BJP, eight from Congress, 16 from other parties, and 16 Independents.