Beirut to Bali: the echo the West doesn146;t want to hear

A dormant terrorist network may be galvanised by events in Lebanon, and inspired by Hezbollah8217;s 8216;victory8217; over Israel

The Israeli attack on Lebanon and the ceasefire creating the perception of a Hezbollah victory in the minds of Muslim radicals worldwide could rekindle the threat of terrorism in Southeast Asia, or even raise it to new levels. Until now, regional security analysts have disagreed over the extent of the external links of Southeast Asian terrorist groups. One school saw terrorism in Southeast Asia as internationally linked and inspired, especially with and by Al-Qaeda. Others have disputed this, and instead stressed the fundamentally local nature of the phenomenon, rooted in ethnic and separatist conflicts that are a well-known feature of Southeast Asia8217;s postcolonial political landscape.

Indeed, most, if not all, of the so-called terrorist groups in Southeast Asia are found where there have been longstanding ethnic or separatist conflicts, as in southern Thailand, and southern Philippines. In Indonesia, radical Islamic groups are much more influenced by their animosity towards rival local ethnic groups, as in Poso and Ambon, or to create the Islamic State that they have long sought as with the old Darul Islam and its offshoot, Jemmah Islamiah than to fight the US. In southern Thailand, despite the occasional discovery of Al-Qaeda tapes or manuals, the claims of an international connection have proven spurious.

But the Israeli attack on Lebanon may change all that. It internationalises, at least in terms of inspiration if not material or physical support, what has been a predominantly local phenomenon. Moreover, the impact of the Lebanon conflict could create new avenues for networking among Southeast Asian jihadists and help their quest in finding fresh ways to increase mobilisation and recruitment. The inspiration derived from yet another war between Israel and Arabs in the holy land would also give more legitimacy to militant violence at home.

Over the past years, the Jemaah Islamia JI group in Southeast Asia, described by experts as the region8217;s most powerful, extensively networked terrorist group, directly backed by Al-Qaeda, has been in retreat, thanks partly to better law enforcement, especially in Indonesia. The so-called Afghan alumni jihadists trained in camps in Taliban-ruled Afghanistan, the backbone of the JI, have dwindled in size, fragmented by internal divisions over ideology and tactics and lacking effective leadership. But the war in Lebanon, featuring massive Israeli firepower and mounting civilian casualties, increases the danger of a new breed of terrorists emerging in Southeast Asia.

Media reports have highlighted the danger of scores of angry Indonesian Muslim youths who have expressed eagerness to fight in Iraq and Lebanon. In July, Abu Bakar Bashir, regarded as JI8217;s spiritual leader, issued an open call to Indonesian jihadis at a rally of the Crescent Star Party in Jakarta to go to the Middle East to fight Israel. In early August, an Indonesian Foreign Ministry spokesman, Desra Percaya, noted: 8220;We have heard scores of Indonesians want to go to the Middle East to defend the people in Palestine and Lebanon,8221; adding, 8220;The government understands what they are feeling 8230; anger, disappointment and frustration with Israeli troops acting inhumanly and brutally.8221;

While logistical problems and security barriers would check large-scale movement of Indonesian radicals to the Middle East, there is a danger that those factions within radical Islamic groups who had focused their attention on local targets would now turn against Western targets. It will galvanise a new generation of less educated radical youth compared to the relatively well-educated Afghan alumni who may be even more susceptible to the message of clerics and activists who distort Islamic texts to incite violence.

The carnage in Lebanon could not have come at a worse time as far as the motivating forces behind international terrorism are concerned. The situation in Iraq is sliding inexorably towards a civil war. The Iraq war had already galvanised the anger of radical Islamic elements in Southeast Asia. Their thirst for revenge against Western targets would be significantly aggravated by the Israeli attack on Lebanon. Given the US policy of delaying international action to stop the conflict as a way of giving Israel more time to root out the Hezbollah, the war is seen by Muslims as decisive proof of the collusion between Israel and the US that has sustained the occupation of Palestine.

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The danger is compounded by the fact that the Hezbollah is now seen as having 8220;won8221; the battle with Israel, which failed to obliterate its most dangerous enemy. The war has dented Israel8217;s war-fighting reputation and hence its formidable deterrent capability. That may inspire Southeast Asian radicals further, even if large numbers of them do not physically travel to the Middle East. Overall, the Israeli attack on Lebanon, which the US has backed as part of its war on terror, may end up backfiring in the manner of the attack on Iraq and worsen the threat of terrorism in Southeast Asia.

The writer is deputy director of the Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies, Nanyang Technical University, Singapore