Atal8217;s ? mark

Without waiting for the verdict of the national executive, on June 1 M. Venkaiah Naidu 8212; facing no threat to his presidency 8212; reconstituted a new team with old faces. Pramod Mahajan and Arun Jaitley, the fabled 8216;8216;rainmakers8217;8217; of December 2003, were general secretaries despite their abysmal failure to conjure clouds in a dry sky; Kalyan Singh and Rajnath Singh, whose supposed caste appeal came a cropper in Uttar Pradesh, were also rewarded; L.K.Advani was compensated for the futile rigours of his Bharat Uday Yatra with the cabinet-rank Leader of Opposition post. Vajpayee himself was placed 8212; after amending the party constitution, Congress-style 8212; as chairperson of the parliamentary party.

As one embittered national executive member then said, 8216;8216;The whitewash has begun. Do you think there can be any serious discussion on what went wrong on the ideological, organisational or political front when the same leadership that led us to defeat presides over the Mumbai meeting?8217;8217;

An old man touches a fresh wound

VAJPAYEE proved such sceptics wrong. Exactly a month after the May 13 verdict he delivered another shock. In a television interview he revisited the Gujarat carnage of March 2002 and said he had wanted to remove chief minister Narendra Modi back then. That was not all. The Gujarat riots, he said, were one reason for the party8217;s Lok Sabha defeat; and the issue of leadership change in the state would most certainly come up at the national executive meeting.

RSS chief K.S. Sudarshan was the first to react. Addressing an Officers8217; Training Camp OTC of senior swayamsevaks at Kota in Rajasthan, Sudarshan did not mince words. The Gujarat riots, he declared, had nothing to do with the BJP8217;s May debacle.

BJP chief Venkaiah Naidu echoed Sudarshan8217;s words the next day. There were no plans to remove Modi and the issue would not come up at Mumbai, he declared after hurried consultations with party leaders in Delhi, telephonic discussion with Advani then holidaying in Nainital and failed attempts to get Vajpayee to issue a clarification in Manali.

Party leaders in Delhi were mystified by Vajpayee8217;s remarks and its timing. A senior leader, known to be close to Vajpayee, said no one in the BJP would back Vajpayee on the Gujarat issue because he had needlessly linked Modi8217;s removal with the riots: 8216;8216;Modi was on his way out. Vajpayee, Advani, Venkaiah, and Madan Das Devi had all agreed that Modi had to be removed 8212; because his style had alienated almost everyone. But removing Modi on the issue of riots is a condemnation of Hindu society. No BJP member will accept that. The election results have shown that we cannot afford to play around with our core constituency.8217;8217;

Collateral damage, Hindutva-style

AS BJP leaders went in for damage control, they hoped Vajpayee would bail them out with one more of his characteristically oblique but loaded remarks. But there was no word from Vajpayee.

Meanwhile VHP leaders Ashok Singhal and Giriraj Kishore, always critical of Vajpayee8217;s moderation, suggested he retire from politics. The BJP, even while embarrassed by 8216;8216;Atalji8217;s8217;8217; utterances on Gujarat, was forced to rush to the defence of its 8216;8216;tallest leader8217;8217;.

That, they hoped, would ensure a truce. Vajpayee would not refer to the Gujarat riots again; and the party would stand by him, and the national executive would talk not of the miseries of the past but the challenges of the future 8212; the strategy to expose the UPA government, to win the elections in Maharashtra, to revive in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar.

But on Thursday, June 17, Vajpayee once again said in Manali that Gujarat was an issue, and it would be discussed by the national executive. The June 13 interview was not quite as 8216;8216;off the cuff8217;8217; as his party colleagues tried to make it out to be.

Here8217;s history as action replay

A much greater battle was brewing, a battle that has lain at the very heart of the BJP since it came into being on April 6, 1980. For what Vajpayee has done is to pit himself 8212; as the embodiment of the 8216;8216;liberal8217;8217; strain in the BJP 8212; against the might of the RSS and the BJP8217;s Hindutva core.

The Vajpayee versus RSS portrayed as Vajpayee versus Advani in the 1985-1996 phase battle is not new. The BJP, since its inception, has had to straddle this fault line 8212; beholden to the RSS for its core vote but dependent on Vajpayee for the incremental vote.

In 1984, the party8217;s debacle under Vajpayee epitomised by his emphasis on 8216;8216;Gandhian socialism8217;8217; and focus on the JP legacy rather than RSS roots led to the ascendance of hardline Hindutva. Under Advani8217;s leadership, the party became an appendage of the RSS and VHP and increased its tally from two to 86 1989 to 119 1991 to 162 1996.

But by 1996 and the abortive, 13-day government of Vajpayee, hardline Hindutva had reached its limits. The RSS and VHP never reconciled to being sidelined but in the interests of keeping the BJP in power, acquiesced with Vajpayee8217;s leadership.

And every cult has its anti-cultists
IN the initial years of the Vajpayee government, the RSS tried to intervene. Vajpayee, in his quintessential flip flop manner, occasionally gave in most infamously on removing Modi in 2002 but also stood up when his personal authority was challenged. When Sudarshan demanded the ouster of Brajesh Mishra from the PMO in March 2001, Vajpayee stood his ground 8212; if Mishra was forced to resign, so would he.

Vajpayee could take on the RSS because he gradually assumed full control over the BJP. Advani, a potential threat, was content to do his loyal duty. And for all his laissez faire approach to leadership, Vajpayee demanded total loyalty. Dissidence 8212; Govindacharya or Kalyan Singh 8212; was shown the door. The latter returned only after profuse apologies.

When Naidu dared to equate Vajpayee and Advani as 8216;8216;twin mascots8217;8217;, Vajpayee8217;s threat to abdicate led to a long line of prostrating partmen at his door. Not only was the loh purush-vikas purush line dumped, the BJP fought the 2004 elections almost exclusively on the 8216;8216;Atal factor8217;8217; 8212; with 8216;8216;feel good8217;8217; and 8216;8216;Indian Shining8217;8217; as mere Vajpayee brand extensions.

With the BJP8217;s unexpected defeat, the calibrated RSS-Vajpayee balance, tipped in favour of Vajpayee in the past six years, threatens to swing the other way. VHP hotheads such as Pravin Togadia have already declared the BJP lost the election because Vajpayee and Advani alienated Hindus and appeased Muslims. The RSS, less vocal than the VHP, feels much the same way.

One senior RSS ideologue said, 8216;8216;When we say that the BJP leaders abandoned ideology, we are not talking just about Ayodhya or Kashmir or Vajpayee8217;s blatant appeasement of Muslims in the election campaign. We are also talking about how their entire lifestyle changed. In India, image is very important. And the image our leaders portrayed 8212; exercising on treadmills, attending page 3 parties, cutting birthday cakes in the company of celebrities 8212; was of a pro-rich, pro-American party. They completely lost touch with the people.8217;8217;

Significantly even Mahajan, architect of the BJP8217;s hi-tech campaign, told this reporter that one reason for the BJP8217;s defeat was it8217;s pro-rich image that the Congress8217;s 8216;8216;aam aadmi8217;8217; campaign managed to highlight. And that image proved more harmful among the urban poor and the lower middle classes 8212; one reason why the BJP lost in Mumbai and Delhi and other cities 8216;8216;full of migrants from impoverished villages8217;8217;.

The worst of 20 years ago
FOR the RSS, it is 1984 once more. Just as the 1984 debacle forced a 8216;8216;course correction8217;8217;, the latest defeat will also eventually make the party 8216;8216;return to its roots8217;8217;, it feels.

Significantly, several BJP members are also veering to the belief that without the RSS8217; cadre-support, the BJP cannot win elections. Vajpayee is still their 8216;8216;tallest leader8217;8217;, but a leader who has lost them an election does not command the same awe. Vajpayee8217;s decision to take the saffron cow by its horns 8212; by raking up the Gujarat riots issue 8212; shows this time round in contrast to the post-1984 period, he is not willing to give up without a fight.

For one thing, the two seats of 1984 cannot be compared to the 138 8212; just seven short of the Congress8217;s 145 8212; the BJP has in the 14th Lok Sabha. According to those close to him, the former prime minister8217;s liberal tendencies have got reinforced in office. He does not want the BJP to revert to being just an appendage of an anachronistic RSS.

His critics, though, attribute his anti-Modi remarks to more selfish motives. Vajpayee is keen to get back to power and has reasons to hope that a 8216;8216;realignment of forces8217;8217; may take place within the term of the 14th Lok Sabha.

8216;8216;There is view in the BJP that a Vajpayee-led government is a distinct possibility because the UPA government is bound to fall long before it completes its term. By clinging on to a moderate image, Vajpayee is keeping doors open for Samajwadi Party and others, and trying to retain the support of NDA partners who blame the Gujarat riots for their poor showing,8217;8217; a BJP leader said.

Red herring in saffron waters

BY raising the Modi issue, Vajpayee is also trying to deflect attention from other reasons for the party8217;s defeat. 8216;8216;If Modi or the Gujarat violence becomes the issue, the national executive will not discuss the real drawbacks of the campaign 8212; including that the Atal factor did not work,8217;8217; a BJP functionary caustically remarked.

But the consummate politician that he is, even his detractors feel Vajpayee will ultimately emerge with his image enhanced. 8216;8216;Vajpayee,8217;8217; an RSS leader pointed out, 8216;8216;always emerges victorious after all controversies. His stature is such that no one can openly challenge him. And this time, unlike 1986, we have no alternative leader to back.8217;8217;

Another BJP leader, with strong RSS connections, said, 8216;8216;The real challenge in Mumbai will be to reject Vajpayee8217;s line but not isolate him personally.8217;8217; That8217;s a fair indication that the debate8217;s existential debate will not end in Mumbai next week. It will only begin.

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