As voting rolls increase, so do wild cards

Lionel White seems like the kind of new voter who could help the Democrats win this crucial swing state. He is 23, Black, works at a fast fo...

Lionel White seems like the kind of new voter who could help the Democrats win this crucial swing state. He is 23, Black, works at a fast food restaurant and is angry about the economy, urban blight and the war in Iraq.

But White registered himself to vote this year for the first time because he was getting paid by the Urban League to register others. He did not watch the debates, confesses to having a marginal interest in politics and feels the candidates are not talking about issues he cares about. He is lukewarm at best about going to the polls next week.

8216;8216;I don8217;t think either one of them gives a damn about us,8217;8217; he said of the two main presidential candidates.

As White8217;s story suggests, many newly registered voters are wild cards whose uncertain allegiances could tip the vote in closely contested states like this one, making such voters the focus of an intense tug-of-war between the parties.

Certainly, their numbers are legion. In Ohio, nearly three-quarters of a million people registered to vote this year, bringing the state8217;s total registration to a record 7.8 million plus. In Iowa, Florida and Pennsylvania as well, registration drives8212;largely by Democratic groups8212;have swelled voter rolls to new levels, raising the likelihood that more people will vote this year than since the high-turnout year of 1992, experts said.

The new voters8217; potential to decide the election has become graphically evident on the streets, on the airwaves and in courtrooms of this state, where Democrats have marched with placards proclaiming 8216;8216;every vote counts8217;8217; and Republicans have been determinedly challenging thousands of new registrations as fraudulent.

But a fundamental question remains: will new voters vote? Historically, newly registered voters8212;because they are younger, more independent or less politically engaged8212;have voted at lower rates than the rest of the electorate.

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Only those people who registered themselves because of their intense interest in the race are highly likely to vote, experts say. Just who votes is so critical because the race is so close in several states. Polls show Bush and Kerry essentially tied in Ohio, and both parties have started operations focused on getting the new voters to the polls. The Supreme Court ruled yesterday that Ralph Nader would not be on Ohio8217;s ballot.

A Gallup poll released this week indicated that Kerry was leading Bush by about 10 points among people who say they are voting for president for the first time, though the sample was small. Still, the track record for new voters is not strong. Many are young people, a group that historically has turned out at lower rates. Among adults, many of the new registrants come from highly transient, lower-income neighbourhoods, where voter participation also has been historically low. Some were swept up in voter registration drives but have little interest in politics. And many had simply moved since the last election.

8216;8216;Voting is a habit, and many new voters are people who do not have the habit,8217;8217; said John Green, director, Bliss Institute of Applied Politics at University of Akron. 8216;8216;Even with very heavy get-out-the-vote operations, it would be unusual if you could get more than 50 per cent of them to vote.8217;8217; 8212; NYT