Arjun is fall guy for embarrassing Sonia

But the embarrassment of Sonia having to publicly back off from the stated position of 272 MPs in her favour and going with only 233 to President K.R. Narayanan was quickly raised by the MPs and some CWC members as the “great gaffe” which has undone Congress chances to a large extent.

Arjun Singh, in particular, isunderstood to have been the target.

At least three CWC members are reported to have voiced unhappiness against Arjun in their meetings with Sonia today. So did many MPs, notably from Andhra Pradesh, Kerala, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh and the North-east. The charges against Arjun and Pradhan are of having “surrounded andmonopolised” Sonia and guiding her into saying she had 272 MPs with her, a big 39 more than what was true.

It was a rare example of Sonia breaking her silence and airing facts, which the anti-Arjun camp is saying was the result of his advice that a Congress minority government was possible and that Sonia must not lose this chance. The Arjun camp is credited with the theory that once Sonia forms a minority government, she would kill two big birds with one stone.

The “foreigner” tag would fall off once and for all and Sonia as PM could save the Congress enormous amounts of money in the event of an election later. Her campaign tours are costly affairs, with huge security concerns, andas PM, the government would bear the burden of Sonia’s travel. The money saved in this manner could fund a third of the Congress’ Lok Sabha nominees, feels the Arjun camp.

Thus the urgency on a Sonia-led minority government which seems to be backfiring now. The other charge being hurled at Arjun is that the Congress Working Committee hasn’t met, during the current crisis, apart from one occasion when it authorised Sonia to take charge of forming the next government.

Some CWC members feel Arjun is stalling a meeting of the panel where varying perceptions exist on several issues like the nature of an alternative government. Some members like Sharad Pawar want elections but Arjun Singh is keen on a Congress government. Curiously, a CWC meeting was still not convened till late at night even though Sonia said yesterday it would meet soon.

Today was another bad day. None of the 39 MPs from other parties whose support the Congress needs, to form an alternative government, came its way and pressure builtup to back a government headed by the Third Front. ADMK chief J. Jayalalitha said as much to Sonia in their meeting at 10, Janpath, indicating that the Congress president is still stuck with the figure of 233.

That being so, a Congress minority government looks less likely. The possibility of a Congress-led coalition, as proposed by CPM general secretary Harkishan Singh Surjeet today, is even more remote. The Tamil Maanila Congress still doesn’t want the ADMK in such a set-up, the BSP dislikes the Samajwadi Party and vice-versa, the JD is saying no to the RJD while the Left Front will have no part of it.

The chances of a Congress leader other than Sonia heading a government are too minute as the Samajwadi Party, RSP and Forward Bloc are opposed to the Congress in general and not against any individual. Leaving the chances of a Third Front-led government a possibility. And while the CPM itself is most reluctant to shove Basu into the melting pot, the Congress is cornered yet again.

If it appears slow toback Basu now, its secular commitments will be harped upon. If it agrees readily, it loses face after Sonia’s stand of forming a minority government. As a sop, Mulayam has apparently said Sonia could choose anyone of her liking from the Third Front for the top post.

In Congress circles, this is being seen as adding insult to injury. And the buck is stopping at Arjun Singh’s door going by today’s feelings in the Congress.