Apathy wave may spring surprises in State

Coming as it does from a state known for its strong Hindutva sentiments, which were sought to be whipped up in the guise of Kargil-fuelled nationalism, the turnout should be a matter of concern for BJP strategists from the national point of view, especially since polling is yet to take place in many parts of the country.

Poor turnout even in a constituency like Gandhinagar, where a national leader of the stature of L K Advani and former bureaucrat like T N Seshan were contesting, gives out a signal that the middle class in urban Ahmedabad, more than half of which falls in Gandhinagar constituency, was not willing to buy the BJP8217;s claim of victory in Kargil, stresses political scientist Dinesh Shukla, neither did they expect wonders from Seshan as a politician. 8220;It is sheer cynicism, which worked against both parties,8221; Shukla says.

In Gujarat, the BJP had calculated that Kargil would work the same magic L K Advani8217;s Ram rathyatra had done. But the urban centres, which demonstrated a clear pro-BJP sentiment in the past elections, generally registered a low turnout as compared to rural areas.

Voting was low in some previous elections too and yet the BJP had maintained its winning edge. Therefore, it may be premature to assume that a low turnout would reward the Congress. Fortune would ultimately favour the candidate who could mobilise more voters, rather than any particular factor having an impact in these polls.

But comparisons cannot be drawn with the 1998 elections as Assembly elections were simultaneously held and there were three parties, including the Rashtriya Janata Party. In 1996, the State registered just 36 per cent voting and it was 44 per cent in 1991.

Shukla believes if the traditional Congress vote banks favour the party at the hustings, it could gain some seats. 8220;I won8217;t be surprised if this election throws up some surprises,8221; he says.

Congress spokesperson Hasmukh Patel says, 8220;It should be seen where turnout was low; in earlier elections, urban areas showed more interest in the democratic process, whereas the turnout was greater in rural areas this time8221;. Patel believes the anti-incumbency feeling against Keshubhai Patel did work.

But BJP maintains that Kargil has worked despite the low turnout, and party leader and Minister of State for Home Haren Pandya only concedes that their victory margin may decrease. 8220;Though there may have been low turnout, majority of the votes have gone to the BJP because of Kargil,8221; he claims.