Another party, but the same songs

Second, party discipline in Congress, especially in the Senate and among Democrats, is never 100 per cent. On any piece of legislation that comes to a vote, there are always members who defy the party leadership and vote with the opposition. Democratic leaders of both houses also have a challenge holding their members together, because many of the new Democratic representatives and senators are more conservative in their political leanings than the majority of their Democratic peers. The party recruited these moderate Democrats with the expectation that they8217;d fare better against incumbent Republicans.

They were right. By moving towards the political centre, Democrats captured two-thirds of those voters who do not identify with either party. Members of the new and diverse Democratic majority, however, will have to compromise with each other as well as with Bush if they are to pass their party8217;s legislative agenda into law.

Apart from a repudiation of Bush and the Republican party, this was a centrist election not a Democratic one. The Democrats contested by being 8220;against Bush8221;, the Iraq war, and against Republican policies in general without specifying policies they as Democrats were for.

There are, however, a small number of issues on which nearly all Democrats and even some Republicans agree. These include raising the minimum wage, and an order to the executive branch that it negotiate lower prices for prescription drugs with the pharmaceutical industry to reduce the cost of federal health programmes. Democrats have also vowed to clean up corruption in Congress. Several Republican members of Congress and their staff were convicted or indicted for corrupt practices before the elections. Forty per cent of Americans stated that corruption in government was an important issue in this election, about the same as the number that mentioned Iraq. Republicans will have difficulty opposing any of these popular reforms.

Democrats are also unlikely to extend Bush8217;s vaunted tax cuts, due to expire in 2010, without raising the rate of taxation on the top 1-2 per cent of incomes. Last, but not least, Democrats are likely to insist on the staged withdrawal of American troops from Iraq beginning end of 2007 if not sooner. For Bush, the promise for 8220;victory8221; in Iraq is no longer an option.

What does the Democratic victory mean for India? Will US policy towards India change in any significant way? The answer is 8220;no8221; because the same underlying forces that led to the steady warming of relations between India and the US since the early 8217;90s weren8217;t altered by the election. India8217;s rapid rate of economic development which has in turn led to increases in both trade and investment between the two countries is likely to continue.

Democrats may block the renewal of Bush8217;s authority to negotiate new trade legislation, and try to enact other measures to stop US companies from outsourcing work to other countries.

Democrats are also likely to continue the high subsidies the US government pays to producers of agricultural products thus making these products artificially cheap on the Indian market and discouraging Indian producers. The costs of such subsidies, however, contributes to the US budget deficit and are becoming difficult to sustain.

It8217;s also possible that Democrats in the Senate will block ratification of Bush8217;s agreement to provide India with fuel, technology for its nuclear power industry without futher concessions by India with respect to the non-proliferation of fissionable materials. Sales of US military equipment to India, however, are unlikely to be affected.

The bottomline is that Democrats and Republicans in Congress admire India as the world8217;s post populous democracy. More than 200 members of Congress now belong to the informal India caucus, a group that supports India and calls for strong US-India relations. With the Cold War receding into history, and Americans wary about the rise of China and the spread of terrorism from Pakistan, India is increasingly viewed as a strategic partner by both parties alike. The Democratic victory thus has significance for the course of US domestic politics and for US policy in Iraq. For India, little will change.

The writer is professor emeritus, political science at the University of Iowa and senior associate at Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C.