American safari

Questions will continue to be raised about the timing of Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee8217;s visit to the United States. Calling on a lame duck president is not something that will catch the imagination of the people back home. More so when Bill Clinton himself wants his successor to decide whether his overambitious missile shield programme should be pursued or not after the recent setbacks it suffered. Similarly, it is debatable how productive Vajpayee8217;s meetings with the presidential candidates will be when they are busy with their campaigns and may not, therefore, be able to focus on Indo-US relations. Chances of Vajpayee utilising the opportunity to meet the chief executive of Pakistan during the UN millennium session have also been ruled out. This being the ground reality, few dramatic achievements can be expected from the ten-day sojourn. But all this does not minimise the importance of the visit which, in fact, denotes a new phase in Indo-US relations. Seldom has a prime ministerial visit to the USoccurred in more fortuitous circumstances than this one. There is now a greater understanding between the two nations of each other8217;s perceptions, be it on CTBT or Kashmir or any other bilateral or multilateral issue, as was apparent during President Clinton8217;s visit to India in March last.

A whole lot of factors account for the turnaround in Indo-US relations, apart from the many commonalties that exist between the two which Vajpayee has enumerated in his interview to the International Herald Tribune. The technological advances India has made, particularly in the information technology sector, and the success stories of the Indians in the Silicon Valley have contributed to the metamorphosis of the image of India in the US. That India could successfully withstand the pressures of Western sanctions imposed on her in the wake of the Pokharan blasts has also helped in the process. There is also now greater understanding in the US of the threat India faces from cross-border terrorism as well as a growing realisation that propping up Pakistan as a bulwark against the Soviet presence in Afghanistan was not a wholly sensible approach. The US may still be far away from declaring Pakistan a terrorist state but it certainly realises that it is a folly to put all its South Asian eggs in thePakistani basket. The giant strides India has made in liberalising the economy have opened American eyes to the investment opportunities that exist in India with lesser risks than in China which, despite all its reforms, remains a totalitarian state.

Needless to say, India has crossed that stage when it would be excessively bothered about whether the future US president is a Republican or aDemocrat. While it is a safe conjecture that Al Gore will, by and large, continue the Clinton policy, India is prepared for a Bush presidency as well. US elections of the past did not witness Indians playing a significant role but, today, they are not only numerically important, but prosperous to boot, and both parties are vigorously wooing them. Vajpayee8217;s visit should, therefore, be seen more in the nature of a long-term investment than in terms of immediate gains.