All eyes on RS seats from UP

It is learnt that the BJP leadership impressed upon the businessmen to keep away unless they were firmly committed to political parties as their presence otherwise may cast a shadow. It is in this context that liquor baron Vijay Mallya and Jawahar Goel have opted out of the race as Independents. Vijay Mallya is hoping to get a Congress ticket if film star Dilip Kumar opts out.

In UP, the entry of another liquor baron, Ponti Chadha, and industrialist Jayant Malhoutra and the decision of the Loktantrik Congress to field journalist Rajiv Shukla has made the election a free for all.

The battle has become all the more interesting with Mayawati deciding to field two candidates — including her private secretary Babu Singh Kushwaha. The BSP is expected to win one seat on the basis of its strength in the UP Assembly. On this basis, of the 11 RS seats, the BJP is expected to win five, the Samajwadi Party three.

A candidate requires 36 first preference votes to win a RS seat in the House of 425. The BJP is to announce the names of its five candidates tomorrow. Rajnath Singh, Ram Kumar Kovind, Ram Baksh Verma, Sushma Swaraj and Balbir Punja are expected to find their way into the list. The SP has given out two tickets (Janeshwar Mishra and Sakshi Maharaj) and is waiting to pick up a third candidate as it is short of five votes. Mulayam Singh Yadav, therefore, may field a powerful businessman capable of garnering these extra votes.

The Congress, however, is also hoping to get Inder Khosla elected on the basis of its 21 votes and also the 12 others available with the Rashtriya Lok Dal of Ajit Singh. It may also impress upon the CPI and CPM to support the Congress.

The Jantantrik BSP headed by Narendra Singh — which has a strength of 18 MLAs — is willing to support a candidate who can “strengthen” the party. Naresh Agarwal’s Loktantrik Congress is also in touch with Narendra Singh and is counting on other floating votes to ensure a victory for Rajiv Shukla. The entry of Ponti Chadha and Jayant Malhoutra, however, has changed the equation.

In Bihar, it is clear that the RJD will win three seats. Laloo Prasad Yadav will announce the names of his three candidates on Tuesday morning and Naresh Yadav’s is likely to be one of them. The Congress has 23 votes and is likely to nominate Sitaram Kesri as Laloo will arrange for the extra votes. The CPI, CPI (ML), CP-ML (democratic), MCC and a handful of Independents may also support Kesri.

A candidate requires 40 first preference votes to win a seat here. One of the reasons for Anand Mohan Singh deserting the NDA is his hope to get RS nomination for his wife from the RJD quota.

The Samata Party can win one seat and JD(U) may agree to transfer their surplus votes to the BJP so that it is able to win two seats. There are reports that Samata Party president Jaya Jaitley may be nominated for the lone seat.

The TDP is tipped to win four seats and Laljan Basha is set to get the nomination. The INLD has decided to nominate a Dalit leader from Ambala. The Nationalist Congress Party has allotted its seats to Praful Patel and decided that all the first preference votes should go to him.

The Biju Janata Dal is also set to win two RS seats and may announce its candidates tomorrow. The CPM has announced the names of its three candiadtes while the RSP has announced the name of 50-year-old Manoj Bhattacharya.

In all, the BJP is likely to win 15 seats while the Congress will take 16. The remaining 27 seats are headed for other parties.